Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 30

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Libertad Loja		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.7	3.6	Watch
	1.9	3.45	3.6
	1.95	3.8	3.68
	1.93	3.61	3.66	Watch
	1.91	3.71	3.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.62)	3.65 ↑ (3.6)	3.63 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Loja
48.8%

Draw
25.5%

Vinotinto
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

25.4%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

24.2%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Loja's form might have worsened.

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vinotinto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Loja, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vinotinto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Libertad Loja - Vinotinto Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Vinotinto will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mina F. (G) 14. Caicedo N. 4. Biojo R. 36. Garcia A. 6. Quinonez O. 70. Quinonez Y. 30. Bravo J. 7. Zambrano I. (C) 37. Arboleda C. 8. Ayovi W. 19. Caicedo E.	25. Mitre L. (G) 2. Iriarte I. 40. Mera F. 26. Hernandez E. 11. Mina A. 18. Ushina K. 5. Coba K. 7. Lugo J. 10. Luna D. (C) 4. Aguirre A. 17. Monti R.
Substitutes
9. Avila D. 60. Bao A. (G) 25. Bolanos D. 55. Bueno Quinonez S. 99. Castillo E. (G) 23. Gruezo C. 50. Humanante J. 24. Monaga J. 80. Pachito B. 21. Quinonez A.	13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 23. Gomez L. 77. Ibarra R. 30. Julio M. 15. Larotonda C. 1. Lopez J. (G) 8. Melo A. 3. Micolta C. 36. Nardelli G. 6. Ona C. 22. Rodriguez E. 52. Rodriguez J.
Coaches
Leon J.	Schurrer G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+9', Lugo J. 🟨,
45+10', Caicedo E. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Caicedo N. ⚽, Arboleda C. (A),
54', Mera F. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
54', Ushina K. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
54', Luna D. ↓, Melo A. ↑,
66', Monti R. 🟨,
66', Arboleda C. ↓, Quinonez A. ↑,
66', Caicedo E. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
72', Mina A. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
75', Caicedo N. ↓, Avila D. ↑,
75', Ayovi W. ↓, Humanante J. ↑,
82', Mina F. 🟨,
85', Coba K. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
87', Zambrano I. 🟨,
90', Garcia A. ↓, Gruezo C. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Libertad has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vinotinto has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Libertad will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Libertad won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.09.25	Deportivo Macará - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Libertad Loja - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
01.09.25	Delfín - Libertad Loja	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Libertad Loja - SD Aucas	3:2 ✺
16.08.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TLTWT
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.09.25	Vinotinto - Manta	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto	3:1 ✺
29.08.25	Vinotinto - El Nacional	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Vinotinto - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
18.08.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Vinotinto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.06.25	Vinotinto - Libertad Loja	1:0

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