Match Info

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Torres Cajax A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vinotinto		Manta

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.72	3.5	4.45
	1.73	3.48	4.55	Watch
	1.74	3.53	4.72	Watch
	1.68	3.55	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.73)	3.53 ↑ (3.48)	4.58 ↑ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
53.8%

Draw
26.1%

Manta
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

26.5%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

25.8%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Manta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manta than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Vinotinto - Manta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Santos M. (G) 23. Gomez L. 4. Aguirre A. 26. Hernandez E. 11. Mina A. 6. Ona C. 8. Melo A. 18. Ushina K. 77. Ibarra R. (C) 17. Monti R. 7. Lugo J.	12. Zambrano F. (G) 23. Medina E. A. 38. Ortiz M. 16. Quintero D. 13. Jaramillo M. 19. Ramirez B. 8. Valencia M. 85. Ospitaleche F. 10. Aleman C. . Alman J. 9. Valencia D. (C)
Substitutes
13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 5. Coba K. 2. Iriarte I. 30. Julio M. 15. Larotonda C. 1. Lopez J. (G) 10. Luna D. 40. Mera F. 3. Micolta C. 36. Nardelli G. 22. Rodriguez E. 52. Rodriguez J.	. Almeida F. 4. Angulo L. 7. Cabezas D. 20. Chala J. 1. Chavez W. (G) 14. Mina J. 17. Ortiz R. 3. Penarrieta J. 99. Pico E. (G) 6. Torres Nazareno L. B.
Coaches
Schurrer G.	Carvajal Burgos J. E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Valencia M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', Melo A. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
64', Jaramillo M. 🟥,
68', Ospitaleche F. ↓, Chala J. ↑,
76', Mina A. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
76', Aleman C. ↓, Mina J. ↑,
80', 1 - 0, Monti R. ⚽,
87', Rodriguez E. 🟨,
89', Valencia M. ↓, Almeida F. ↑,
89', Medina E. A. ↓, Ortiz R. ↑,
90+1', Ibarra R. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
90+1', Lugo J. ↓, Coba K. ↑,
90+1', Ona C. ↓, Nardelli G. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 0, Hernandez E. ⚽, Nardelli G. (A),
90+6', Hernandez E. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 2.

Recent form of Vinotinto has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Manta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vinotinto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vinotinto is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Vinotinto won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 2.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.10.25	Vinotinto - Técnico Universitario	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Libertad Loja - Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Vinotinto - Manta	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLWL
- Manta FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.10.25	Mushuc Runa - Manta	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Manta - Técnico Universitario	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Manta - Deportivo Macará	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Vinotinto - Manta	4:1 ✺
15.09.25	Manta - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.09.25	Vinotinto - Manta	4:1
24.05.25	Manta - Vinotinto	2:2
Ecuadorian Serie B
08.09.24	Manta - Vinotinto	1:0
17.07.24	Vinotinto - Manta	6:2
18.06.24	Manta - Vinotinto	2:1
30.04.24	Vinotinto - Manta	2:1
06.09.23	Vinotinto - Manta	1:1

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