Match Info

Paulista A3 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bento de Abreu (Sao Paulo)


	Marília		XV de Jaú

	1	X	2
	1.75	2.98	4.85
	1.75	2.95	4.68
	1.84	2.86	5.01	Watch
	1.8	2.88	4.8
	1.71	3.04	5.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.83)	2.94 ↑ (2.84)	4.93 ↑ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marília
51%

Draw
30.7%

XV de Jaú
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

31.8%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

33.4%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marília has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

XV de Jaú has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marília than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for XV de Jaú than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Marília - XV de Jaú Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

(2 - 2)

Preview

First leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent performances by Marília have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

XV de Jaú is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Marília is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Marília won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Marília won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marília AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
12.04.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Marília - EC São Bernardo	3:0 penalties ✺
28.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Marília	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Marília - Francana	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWLWL
- EC XV de Jaú
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
12.04.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	XV de Jaú - Rio Claro	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Rio Claro - XV de Jaú	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Desportivo Brasil - XV de Jaú	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
12.04.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	0:0
15.03.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	1:0
01.02.25	Marília - XV de Jaú	2:1

Marília - XV de Jaú: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide