Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 6

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Maranhão		Botafogo PB

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	2.85	2.95
	2.42	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.4	3	2.7
	2.57	2.81	3.09
	2.38	2.75	2.9
	2.43	2.85	2.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.27)	2.86 ↓ (2.92)	2.91 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maranhão
37.4%

Draw
31.6%

Botafogo PB
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

31.3%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

27.7%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maranhão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Botafogo PB has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maranhão than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo PB than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Maranhão - Botafogo PB Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jean (G) 16. Andre Radija (C) 29. Felipe Cruz 18. Keven 4. Lucao 26. Luis Gustavo 25. Mauricio 15. Rosivan 20. Vagalume 8. Vander 17. Will	23. Max Walef (G) 77. Bastos R. 16. Bull 2. Diogo Mateus 22. Dudu Nardini 11. Felipe Azevedo 18. Giovanni 9. Henrique Dourado (C) 35. Octavio 4. Saimon 20. Thallyson
Substitutes
2. Ball 3. Edson Fernando 7. Felipe Sales 9. Joelson 10. Jorge Rocha 6. Lucas Santos 11. Pimentinha 19. Rafael Teixeira 5. Railson 22. Rodrigo 14. Tiburcio 12. Vitao	29. Anderson Chaves 25. Caio Garcia 7. Dudu Hatamoto 37. Ed Carlos 12. Erick 88. Gabriel Tota 31. Gustavo 30. Gustavo Santos 14. Igor Morais 39. Lawan 17. Lucas Sena 27. Luiz Daniel (G)
Coaches
Testoni J.	Fernandes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Andre Radija ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Bastos R. ⚽,
35', Diogo Mateus 🟨,
36', Mauricio 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Vagalume ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Giovanni ↓, Gabriel Tota ↑,
46', Thallyson ↓, Caio Garcia ↑,
52', Gabriel Tota 🟨,
55', Lucao 🟨,
62', 3 - 1, Rosivan ⚽,
69', Bastos R. ↓, Gustavo ↑,
69', Henrique Dourado ↓, Dudu Hatamoto ↑,
73', Will ↓, Joelson ↑,
73', Felipe Cruz ↓, Rafael Teixeira ↑,
74', Joelson 🟨,
79', Luis Gustavo ↓, Pimentinha ↑,
79', Andre Radija ↓, Lucas Santos ↑,
80', Felipe Azevedo ↓, Gustavo Santos ↑,
82', Octavio 🟨,
85', Rosivan ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
87', Bull 🟨,
89', Gustavo Santos 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 13).

Maranhão has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Botafogo PB's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Maranhão could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Maranhão won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Maranhão - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.25%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Botafogo PB - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 28.49%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maranhão AC
Brazilian Serie C
04.05.26	Floresta - Maranhão	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Maranhão - Ceará	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Maranhão - Volta Redonda	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Amazonas - Maranhão	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
15.04.26	Sport Recife - Maranhão	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWLL
- Botafogo PB
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Paysandu - Botafogo PB	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Botafogo PB - Fluminense Piaui	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.04.26	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
19.04.26	Figueirense - Botafogo PB	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.01.25	Botafogo PB - Maranhão	1:0

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