Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 5

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)


	Maranhão		Ceará

	1	X	2
	8	4.75	1.3	Watch
	8.75	5	1.29
	6.7	4.15	1.39	Watch
	7.8	4.2	1.4
	7.39	4.34	1.39
	9	4.4	1.3
	8.4	4.05	1.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.01 ↑ (5.64)	4.41 ↑ (3.64)	1.35 ↓ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maranhão
11.4%

Draw
20.7%

Ceará
67.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.1%

24.9%

59%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.8%

24.4%

60.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maranhão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ceará's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maranhão than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ceará, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Maranhão - Ceará Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Ball 3. Edson Fernando 29. Felipe Cruz 7. Felipe Sales 10. Jorge Rocha 6. Lucas Santos 11. Pimentinha 5. Railson 22. Rodrigo 14. Tiburcio 12. Vitao	94. Bruno Ferreira (C) 21. Alex Silva 20. Diego 11. Fernandinho 17. Fernando 30. Gustavo Prado 18. Julio Cesar 99. Lucca 4. Luiz Otavio 8. Matheus Araujo 25. Vinicius Zanocelo
Substitutes
16. Andre Radija 13. Caio Victor 1. Jean (G) 9. Joelson 18. Keven 4. Lucao 21. Pedro Lucas 19. Rafael Teixeira 15. Rosivan 20. Vagalume 8. Vander 17. Will	33. Eder 35. Giulio 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 81. Joao Gabriel 10. Juan Alano 31. Lucas Lima 40. Melk 7. Pedro Henrique 2. Ramos R. 26. Richardson 12. Sanchez

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
30', 0 - 1, Lucca ⚽,
34', 0 - 2, Fernandinho ⚽,
37', Lucas Santos 🟨,
38', 0 - 3, Matheus Araujo ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pimentinha ↓, Rafael Teixeira ↑,
46', Felipe Cruz ↓, Joelson ↑,
46', Gustavo Prado ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
46', Alex Silva ↓, Eder ↑,
46', Felipe Sales 🟨,
46', Matheus Araujo ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
59', Lucca ↓, Sanchez ↑,
60', Diego 🟨,
64', Edson Fernando ↓, Will ↑,
65', Jorge Rocha ↓, Vagalume ↑,
67', Fernandinho ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
71', 1 - 3, Vagalume ⚽,
86', Ramos R. 🟨,
87', Ball ↓, Rosivan ↑,
89', Joelson 🟨,

Preview

Maranhão is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ceará's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Maranhão has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ceará is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Maranhão won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Maranhão won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maranhão AC
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Maranhão - Volta Redonda	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Amazonas - Maranhão	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
15.04.26	Sport Recife - Maranhão	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
11.04.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Maranhão	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Imperatriz de Desportos - Maranhão	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLT
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	Ceará - Vila Nova	3:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.04.26	Londrina - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
14.04.26	Ceará - Jacuipense	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
12.03.26	Maranhão - Ceará	0:1

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