Match Info

Challenge League - Round 12

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Marsa		Santa Lucia

	1	X	2
	2.58	3.65	2.25	Watch
	2.53	4.01	2.23	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.25
	2.47	3.76	2.26
	2.45	3.66	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (3.52)	3.72 (3.72)	2.24 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsa
35.8%

Draw
24.2%

Santa Lucia
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

24.6%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

23.3%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marsa's performance.

Santa Lucia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santa Lucia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsa than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marsa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Lucia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Marsa - Santa Lucia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Vella M. ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Conti K. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 1 - 2, Vella M. ⚽,
56', 2 - 2, Bugeja G. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: )).

Marsa is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Santa Lucia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Santa Lucia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marsa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:16. (average 1.4:3.2).

Including home match between the teams, Marsa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Santa Lucia	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsa FC
Maltese Challenge League
11.01.26	Melita - Marsa	3:2 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Marsa - Naxxar Lions	0:3 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
21.12.25	Marsa - St. Andrews	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Marsa	1:0 ✺
10.12.25	Swieqi United - Marsa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLLLW
- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
11.01.26	Santa Lucia - Żebbuġ Rangers	0:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	2:1 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
20.12.25	Santa Lucia - Balzan	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Vittoriosa Stars - Santa Lucia	0:2 ✺
09.12.25	Żurrieq - Santa Lucia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
29.03.25	Santa Lucia - Marsa	3:1
15.09.24	Santa Lucia - Marsa	0:5
Maltese FA Trophy
11.01.24	Santa Lucia - Marsa	2:0
Maltese Challenge League
12.01.19	Santa Lucia - Marsa	7:1
Maltese FA Trophy
22.10.17	Marsa - Santa Lucia	0:4

Marsa - Santa Lucia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide