Match Info

Challenge League - Round 11

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Melita		Marsa

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.8	4.15	Watch
	1.65	3.9	4.37	Watch
	1.62	3.6	4.4
	1.62	3.78	4.57
	1.6	3.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.49)	3.77 ↓ (4.1)	4.34 ↓ (5.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melita
55.3%

Draw
23.9%

Marsa
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

22.2%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

17.3%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melita's form might have worsened.

Marsa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melita than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melita that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsa than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Melita - Marsa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, ⚽,
6', 2 - 0, ⚽,
13', 3 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
64', 3 - 1, ⚽,
79', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: ) and 14 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melita won 3.

Recent performances by Melita have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Marsa's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Marsa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Melita is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Melita won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:11. (average 2.8:1.8).

Including home match between the teams, Melita won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Melita	2	1	0	1	4:2	2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melita FC
Maltese Challenge League
21.12.25	Melita - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	0:2 ✺
13.12.25	St. Andrews - Melita	1:0 ✺
10.12.25	Mġarr United - Melita	1:3 ✺
30.11.25	Melita - Pietà Hotspurs	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Sirens - Melita	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWWL
- Marsa FC
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Marsa - Naxxar Lions	0:3 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
21.12.25	Marsa - St. Andrews	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Marsa	1:0 ✺
10.12.25	Swieqi United - Marsa	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Marsa - Mġarr United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
03.03.24	Marsa - Melita	0:4
21.10.23	Marsa - Melita	3:3
Maltese FA Trophy
15.11.22	Marsa - Melita	2:3
Maltese Challenge League
30.10.22	Marsa - Melita	0:2
20.04.18	Marsa - Melita	4:4
07.01.18	Melita - Marsa	1:2

Melita - Marsa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide