Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 20

Date: 3 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Marsaxlokk		Sliema Wanderers

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.58	3.1	2.52	Watch
	2.57	3	2.74
	2.58	3.01	2.72	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.7
	2.55	2.94	2.63
	2.54	2.8	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (3.05)	2.94 ↑ (2.92)	2.66 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Marsaxlokk
35.2%

Draw
30.7%

Sliema Wanderers
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

30.7%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

28.7%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsaxlokk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marsaxlokk's performance.

Sliema Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sliema Wanderers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sliema Wanderers than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Marsaxlokk - Sliema Wanderers Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sliema Wanderers (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Sliema Wanderers (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sliema Wanderers (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Calleja Cremona M. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 11. Corbalan J. C. 17. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 9. Linden R. 28. Mihana R. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E. 3. Weder	25. Agu E. (G) 77. Awad M. 2. Borg J. 27. Djuric D. 95. Marcelo Santos 10. Montebello L. 31. Murilo Henrique 70. Pisani S. 12. Prsa R. 93. Thiaguinho 20. Wescley
Substitutes
14. Attard E. 18. Barbara A. 15. Borg I. 23. Caruana T. 8. Ghio J. 56. Kikushima M. (G) 19. Kirby J. 26. Maniscalco M. 7. Portelli N. 33. Simkus D. 21. Vella J.	18. Agius E. 22. Al Tumi R. (G) 6. Belfiore J. F. 4. Cauchi K. 5. Frendo N. 15. Gustavo Alcino 1. Lauri F. (G) 7. Overend A. 9. Plut V. 8. Siaw S. 21. Strickland N.
Coaches
Potenza V.	Doffo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Mihana R. ⚽,
28', Minala J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Pisani S. 🟨,
57', Aguirre L. 🟨,
61', 1 - 1, Thiaguinho ⚽,
62', Mihana R. ↓, Caruana T. ↑,
65', El Hasni O. 🟨,
66', Wescley ↓, Overend A. ↑,
68', Prsa R. 🟨,
73', Linden R. ↓, Simkus D. ↑,
75', Marcelo Santos ↓, Plut V. ↑,
84', Pepe E. 🟨,
86', Minala J. ↓, Kirby J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Second stage ~ Top 6: ) and 9 in the zone Premier League (Second stage ~ Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 2.

Marsaxlokk is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sliema Wanderers's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Marsaxlokk won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11
7	Sliema	6	3	1	2	7:7	0	10

Last Results with these Odds

Marsaxlokk - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 29.41%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Sliema Wanderers - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 39.87%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
31.01.26	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Tarxien Rainbows	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Gżira United - Marsaxlokk	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLWT
- Sliema Wanderers
Maltese Premier League
31.01.26	Hamrun Spartans - Sliema Wanderers	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Paola Hibernians	1:3 ✺
16.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Hamrun Spartans - Sliema Wanderers	1:0 ✺
06.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
06.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:0
26.10.25	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	1:1
19.04.25	Marsaxlokk - Sliema Wanderers	2:1
01.03.25	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:1
15.09.24	Marsaxlokk - Sliema Wanderers	0:1
17.02.24	Marsaxlokk - Sliema Wanderers	1:2
01.10.23	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:1

Upcoming Matches