Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio do Marítimo (Funchal) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV App, ZAP
Argentina	14:00	DSports 2
Asia	—	TOD
Brazil	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Canada	13:00	beIN Sports
Cyprus	20:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Ecuador	12:00	DAZN, DSports 2
France	19:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
Georgia	21:00	Silk Sport 2
Japan	02:00	DAZN Japan
Kuwait	20:00	Shasha
Mexico	11:00	Claro Sports
Netherlands	19:00	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 3
Norway	19:00	VG+
Poland	19:00	Eleven Sports 2
Russia	20:00	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
South America	—	DGO Latin America
Spain	19:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	19:00	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Turkey	20:00	beIN Connect
Ukraine	20:00	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	14:00	DAZN, DSports 2
Usa	13:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	13:00	DAZN, DSports 2
International	17:00	OneFootball TV


	Marítimo		Porto

	1	X	2
	9.00	5.00	1.30	Watch
	9.00	5.00	1.32
	10.50	5.10	1.29	Watch
	11.28	5.25	1.32
	10.5	5.5	1.29
	11.00	5.20	1.30
	9.17	5.09	1.36	Watch
	8.80	5.00	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.91 ↑ (7.87)	5.14 ↑ (4.61)	1.31 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
9.5%

Draw
18.4%

Porto
72.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

11.8%

20.1%

68.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.4%

19.5%

70.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	7.1%	92.9%

Marítimo - Porto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 - Marítimo (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Marítimo (votes: 1 - 50%). Porto (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Vieites F. (G) 2. Igor Juliao 44. Correia R. (C) 22. Szalai G. 23. Henrique P. 21. Alani I. 14. Raphael Guzzo 15. Tavares T. 8. Dominguez M. 10. Tejon M. 17. Butzke A.	99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 16. Hwang In-Beom 7. William Gomes 19. Andre Silva 11. Pepê
Substitutes
6. Andrade R. 66. Ayuma I. 27. Bamba S. 12. Bassouamina M. 90. Boakye M. 11. Bouzaidi S. 18. Danilovic V. 4. Fernandes R. 35. Limbombe B. 3. Ogbeta N. 13. Pastor A. (G) 1. Tabuaco G. (G)	14. Claudio Ramos (G) 52. Fernandes M. 42. Fofana S. 37. Gabriel Mec 29. Gimenez S. 77. Pietuszewski O. 13. Rosario P. 17. Sainz B. 9. Samu 6. Smalling C. 33. Souza 10. Veiga G.
Coaches
Van der Gaag M.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Szalai G. ⚽, Dominguez M. (A),
36', Varela A. 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, Froholdt V. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Varela A. ↓, Rosario P. ↑,
54', Hwang In-Beom ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
55', William Gomes ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
57', Pepê 🟨,
66', Tavares T. ↓, Bouzaidi S. ↑,
66', Dominguez M. ↓, Andrade R. ↑,
67', Andre Silva ↓, Samu ↑,
78', Tejon M. ↓, Boakye M. ↑,
79', Butzke A. ↓, Bassouamina M. ↑,
79', Pepê ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Pietuszewski O. ⚽, Kiwior J. (A),
87', Igor Juliao 🟨,
89', Alani I. ↓, Bamba S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes the league leaders in an exciting contest (ranked 11th and 1st in the Promotion - Champions League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 0.

Marítimo is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Porto is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Marítimo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Porto holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Confirmed absences for Marítimo: Ogbeta N. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Porto: Fofana S. (Muscle Injury) Perez N. (Muscle Injury) Sousa V. (Leg Injury) Zaidu (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Marítimo: Bouzaidi S. (Inactive) Butzke A. (Injury) Santiago Perez J. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Porto: Fernandes M. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Marítimo has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:34 (averaging 0.9:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Marítimo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:12 goals (averaging 0.8:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	21:4	17	27
14	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	9:19	-10	8

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

FC Porto: 57.19% Maritimo: 0.29%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Liga Portugal
19.09.26	Gil Vicente - Marítimo	1:1 ✺
14.09.26	Moreirense - Marítimo	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Marítimo - Benfica	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Arouca - Marítimo	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Marítimo - Académico de Viseu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLLLT
- FC Porto
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Porto	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
20.09.26	Porto - Benfica	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	Casa Pia - Porto	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Porto - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.09.26	Porto - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.02.23	Marítimo - Porto	0:2
06.08.22	Porto - Marítimo	5:1
30.01.22	Porto - Marítimo	2:1
22.08.21	Marítimo - Porto	1:1
22.02.21	Marítimo - Porto	1:2
03.10.20	Porto - Marítimo	2:3
10.06.20	Porto - Marítimo	1:0

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