Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 6

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Casa Pia		Porto

	1	X	2
	13	7	1.15	Watch
	12.50	6.75	1.20
	16	5.7	1.19	Watch
	15.99	7.45	1.19
	12.75	6.97	1.21	Watch
	15	7.2	1.17
	13.7	7.38	1.2	Watch
	14	6.8	1.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	14.12 ↑ (10.57)	6.91 ↑ (5.08)	1.19 ↓ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
6.7%

Draw
13.7%

Porto
79.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

72.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Porto's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Casa Pia - Porto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Casa Pia (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.75 - Porto (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 20%). Porto (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
95. Mandic I. (G) 18. Geraldes A. (C) 3. Kaly 43. Sousa D. 75. Rosas P. 16. Clua S. 80. Ofori L. 11. Salah M. 70. Rego J. 77. Pauwels B. 9. Araujo H.	99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 16. Hwang In-Beom 13. Rosario P. 10. Veiga G. 7. William Gomes 19. Andre Silva 11. Pepê
Substitutes
90. Cassiano 59. Dafe A. 8. Gabi 4. Goulart J. 20. Jatta A. 98. JP 17. Maurin E. 24. Perez S. 19. Prieto K. 10. Rochinha 1. Sequeira P. (G) 21. Zouin A.	50. Afonso J. (G) 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 52. Fernandes M. 42. Fofana S. 37. Gabriel Mec 29. Gimenez S. 18. Perez N. 21. Prpic D. 17. Sainz B. 58. Silva T. 33. Souza 22. Varela A.
Coaches
Coelho F.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
43', 1 - 0, Araujo H. (Penalty Awarded),
45', Kiwior J. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Andre Silva ⚽, Rosario P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
53', Kaly 🟨,
54', Geraldes A. 🟨,
60', 1 - 2, Kiwior J. ⚽, Veiga G. (A),
63', William Gomes ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
63', Andre Silva ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
66', 1 - 3, Sainz B. ⚽,
68', Pauwels B. ↓, Maurin E. ↑,
70', Hwang In-Beom ↓, Varela A. ↑,
74', Salah M. ↓, JP ↑,
74', Araujo H. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
80', Veiga G. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,
80', Costa A. ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
87', Sousa D. 🟨,
88', Rego J. ↓, Zouin A. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 4, Gimenez S. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Mandic I. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.

Casa Pia is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Porto is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Casa Pia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Porto is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Pietuszewski O. (Muscle Injury) Samu (Knee Injury) Sousa V. (Leg Injury) Zaidu (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:18. (average 0.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.6:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20:4	16	24
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
06.09.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Casa Pia - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
24.08.26	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
17.08.26	Casa Pia - Benfica	0:7 ✺
08.08.26	Marítimo - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLLLL
- FC Porto
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Porto - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.09.26	Porto - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Académico de Viseu - Porto	0:3 ✺
23.08.26	Porto - Arouca	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Rio Ave - Porto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
02.02.26	Casa Pia - Porto	2:1
24.08.25	Porto - Casa Pia	4:0
12.04.25	Casa Pia - Porto	0:1
02.12.24	Porto - Casa Pia	2:0
21.04.24	Casa Pia - Porto	1:2
09.12.23	Porto - Casa Pia	3:1
14.05.23	Porto - Casa Pia	2:1

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