Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 7

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Porto		Benfica

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.30	2.40	Watch
	2.87	3.30	2.37
	2.80	3.25	2.40	Watch
	2.98	3.35	2.53
	2.99	3.31	2.53	Watch
	2.95	3.25	2.50
	2.98	3.31	2.54
	2.80	3.30	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.76)	3.3 ↓ (3.45)	2.47 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
32.7%

Draw
28.8%

Benfica
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

27.4%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

28.4%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	53.8%	15.4%

Porto - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Benfica will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 1 - 50%). Benfica (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Porto (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Benfica (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.73) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 2 - 50%). Benfica (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 52. Fernandes M. 8. Froholdt V. 13. Rosario P. 10. Veiga G. 7. William Gomes 19. Andre Silva 11. Pepê	24. Soares S. (G) 6. Bah A. 44. Araujo T. 2. Lenglet C. 26. Dahl S. 8. Aursnes F. (C) 36. Palhinha J. 27. Rafa Silva 10. Sudakov G. 25. Prestianni G. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
14. Claudio Ramos (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 29. Gimenez S. 64. Gomes L. 16. Hwang In-Beom 74. Moura F. 77. Pietuszewski O. 21. Prpic D. 17. Sainz B. 9. Samu 33. Souza 22. Varela A.	72. Anisio 58. Banjaqui D. 18. Barreiro L. 3. Circati A. 22. Duran J. 30. Echeverri C. 34. El Karouani S. 13. Kaminski J. 11. Lukebakio D. 16. Manu Silva 21. Schjelderup A. 1. Trubin A. (G)
Coaches
Farioli F.	Silva M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Veiga G. 🟨,
25', Lenglet C. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Veiga G. ⚽, Pepê (A),
34', Prestianni G. 🟨,
35', Lenglet C. 🟨,
38', Veiga G. ↓, Hwang In-Beom ↑,
38', Sudakov G. ↓, Circati A. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, Bah A. ⚽, Prestianni G. (A),
54', 2 - 1, Froholdt V. ⚽, Andre Silva (A),
60', 3 - 1, Hwang In-Beom ⚽, Andre Silva (A),
69', Fernandes M. ↓, Moura F. ↑,
69', William Gomes ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
74', Aursnes F. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
74', Rafa Silva ↓, Lukebakio D. ↑,
74', Prestianni G. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
79', Hwang In-Beom 🟨,
85', Pepê ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
85', Andre Silva ↓, Samu ↑,
85', Dahl S. ↓, El Karouani S. ↑,
90+2', Pietuszewski O. 🟨,
90+2', Bah A. 🟨,
90+3', Araujo T. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ Champions League League phase and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Champions League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 1.

Porto is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Benfica is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Benfica may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Porto: Froholdt V. (Concussion) Pietuszewski O. (Muscle Injury) Samu (Knee Injury) Sousa V. (Leg Injury) Zaidu (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Benfica: Bah A. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Porto has recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 31:23 (averaging 1.6:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Porto against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 20:11 goals (averaging 1.8:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18:3	15	21
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22:7	15	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
12.09.26	Casa Pia - Porto	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Porto - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.09.26	Porto - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Académico de Viseu - Porto	0:3 ✺
23.08.26	Porto - Arouca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWWW
- SL Benfica
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Milan - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.09.26	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
09.09.26	Moreirense - Benfica	0:4 ✺
05.09.26	Marítimo - Benfica	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Benfica - Estoril Praia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
08.03.26	Benfica - Porto	2:2
Taça de Portugal
14.01.26	Porto - Benfica	1:0
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Porto - Benfica	0:0
06.04.25	Porto - Benfica	1:4
10.11.24	Benfica - Porto	4:1
03.03.24	Porto - Benfica	5:0
29.09.23	Benfica - Porto	1:0

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