Match Info

ENGLAND: NPL Premier Division - Round 19

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Matlock Town		Guiseley

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.25	2.45
	2.75	3.5	2.22
	2.49	3.46	2.63
	2.79	3.67	2.3
	2.45	3.25	2.5
	2.74	3.36	2.29
	2.75	3.5	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (4.28)	3.43 ↓ (4.12)	2.37 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matlock Town
34.8%

Draw
26.7%

Guiseley
38.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.4%

22.2%

56.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

21.9%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matlock Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matlock Town's performance.

Guiseley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guiseley might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matlock Town than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matlock Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guiseley than the current prediction. (+18.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guiseley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Matlock Town - Guiseley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

Recent matches Matlock is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Guiseley is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Matlock could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Guiseley will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Matlock won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 3:10 (average 0.6:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Matlock won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matlock Town
English NPL Premier Division
01.03.25	Macclesfield Town - Matlock Town	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Matlock Town - Stockton Town	2:3 ✺
18.02.25	Matlock Town - Ashton United	2:2 ✺
15.02.25	Basford United - Matlock Town	2:1 ✺
08.02.25	Matlock Town - Hebburn Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTLT
- Guiseley
English NPL Premier Division
01.03.25	Guiseley - Ashton United	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Leek Town - Guiseley	2:2 ✺
15.02.25	Guiseley - Ilkeston	1:1 ✺
08.02.25	Prescot Cables - Guiseley	2:0 ✺
01.02.25	Guiseley - Lancaster City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
13.04.24	Matlock Town - Guiseley	2:1
21.11.23	Guiseley - Matlock Town	4:0
14.02.23	Matlock Town - Guiseley	0:1
20.09.22	Guiseley - Matlock Town	2:1
English FA Cup
13.10.20	Guiseley - Matlock Town	2:0

Matlock Town - Guiseley