Match Info

JAPAN: YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/64-finals

Date: 26 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 8


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Sagan Tosu

	1	X	2
	3.9	2.9	1.95	Watch
	3.6	2.95	1.95
	3.8	3.2	2.03	Watch
	3.83	3.28	2.01	Watch
	3.7	3	2
	3.82	3.2	2.04	Watch
	3.65	3.05	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↓ (4.4)	3.08 ↓ (3.2)	2.01 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
24.5%

Draw
29.8%

Sagan Tosu
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21%

28.9%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagan Tosu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 49. Homma J. 47. Tiago Santana 27. Ninomiya J. 40. Higuchi D. 36. Matsumura G. 18. Ohashi H. 22. Saso K. 13. Ishiyama A. 30. Kokubu R. 29. Lucas Vargas	35. Uchiyama K. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 3. Hirase D. 48. Yuya K. 91. Uehara M. 25. Watanabe R. 44. Horigome Y. 23. Kitajima F. 18. Hino S. 34. Yamada H. 47. Shinkawa S.
Substitutes
37. Hagiwara S. 34. Inafuku T. 33. Kim J. H. (G) 20. Maeda R. 41. Murakoshi K. 44. Nonomura T. 42. Tanaka S. 31. Watanabe N. 17. Yamamoto R.	7. Arai H. 45. Higashiguchi A. 22. Matsuda E. 11. Nishikawa J. 16. Nishizawa K. 27. Sakurai T. 77. Slivka V. 21. Yang Han-Been (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Tiago Santana 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Hino S. ↓, Nishikawa J. ↑,
58', Shinkawa S. ↓, Slivka V. ↑,
69', Yamada H. ↓, Matsuda E. ↑,
69', Kitajima F. ↓, Sakurai T. ↑,
72', Kokubu R. ↓, Maeda R. ↑,
72', Lucas Vargas ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
78', Hirase D. 🟨,
82', Horigome Y. ↓, Arai H. ↑,
90+4', Slivka V. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
91', Slivka V. ↓, Higashiguchi A. ↑,
91', Saso K. ↓, Inafuku T. ↑,
94', 1 - 0, Tanaka S. (Pen),
106', Tiago Santana ↓, Nonomura T. ↑,
107', Inafuku T. 🟨,
114', Homma J. ↓, Yamamoto R. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Matsumoto Yamaga won 2.

Recent matches Tosu is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Tosu could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Tosu will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Matsumoto Yamaga won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6:7 (average 1:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Matsumoto Yamaga won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
23.03.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Nara Club - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:1 ✺
23.02.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1 ✺
07.12.24	Kataller Toyama - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTLTT
- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
23.03.25	Sagan Tosu - Kataller Toyama	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Sagan Tosu - Omiya Ardija	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Iwaki - Sagan Tosu	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Sagan Tosu - Imabari	1:4 ✺
22.02.25	Júbilo Iwata - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
10.11.19	Sagan Tosu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
20.04.19	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagan Tosu	1:0
Japan Emperors Cup
12.07.17	Sagan Tosu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2
Japan J1 League
24.10.15	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagan Tosu	1:2
10.05.15	Sagan Tosu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1
Japan Nabisco Cup
18.03.15	Sagan Tosu - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:1

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