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Current Win Probability
Matsumoto Yamaga 35%
Draw 28.3%
Renofa Yamaguchi 36.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
36.1%
27.1%
36.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.2%
27.2%
36.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
Renofa Yamaguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
The ML Model estimate for Renofa Yamaguchi aligns with the current prediction.
Matsumoto Yamaga - Renofa Yamaguchi Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
23. Koma R. (G) 6. Noda H. 4. Minoda K. 16. Miyabe T. (C) 36. Matsumura G. 22. Saso K. 18. Sato R. 13. Murakami H. 40. Higuchi D. 19. Tanaka S. 17. Taguchi Y.
35. Uchiyama K. (G) 15. Itakura T. 5. Yoshioka K. (C) 33. Kikuchi S. 17. Tanabe K. 8. Noyori K. 40. Naruoka H. 2. Ozawa R. 19. Yamamoto S. 4. Nakashima K. 13. Watanabe S.
Substitutes
38. Fujieda K. 39. Inoue A. 43. Kaneko K. 11. Kaneko S. 48. Kawakami K. 30. Kitazume K. 31. Kobayashi M. (G) 8. Sawazaki R. 46. Yasunaga R.
21. Choi Hyung-Chan (G) 11. Fujioka K. 70. Gunji R. 32. Ito T. 18. Kamekawa M. 7. Misawa N. 88. Nomura N. 3. Oiwa K. 43. Suzuki J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
64', Watanabe S. ↓, Gunji R. ↑,
64', Tanabe K. ↓, Ito T. ↑,
64', Nakashima K. ↓, Nomura N. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Gunji R. ⚽, Itakura T. (A),
70', 0 - 2, Nomura N. ⚽,
71', Taguchi Y. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
71', Tanaka S. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
71', Sato R. ↓, Yasunaga R. ↑,
76', Yasunaga R. 🟨,
76', Murakami H. ↓, Kaneko S. ↑,
76', Saso K. ↓, Kitazume K. ↑,
77', Yamamoto S. ↓, Oiwa K. ↑,
90', Gunji R. ↓, Fujioka K. ↑,
90+1', Oiwa K. 🟨,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 12th and 4th in the Promotion - J3 League Promotion - Playoffs).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 2.
In recent outings, Matsumoto Yamaga has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Renofa Yamaguchi shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Matsumoto Yamaga may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Matsumoto Yamaga has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Matsumoto Yamaga has recorded 3 wins, 7 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 18:16 (averaging 1.6:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Matsumoto Yamaga against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 12:11 goals (averaging 2:1.8 per game).
Japan
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Koma R. (G) 
Choi Hyung-Chan (G) 
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