Match Info

J3 League - Round 12

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	19:00	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Thespakusatsu Gunma

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.60	3.90
	1.76	3.50	3.80	Watch
	1.78	3.76	4.22
	1.78	3.78	4.12	Watch
	1.71	3.70	4.15
	1.76	3.83	4.15	Watch
	1.77	3.60	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.76)	3.68 ↑ (3.55)	4.06 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
52.4%

Draw
25%

Thespakusatsu Gunma
22.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.9%

25.2%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

24%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Matsumoto Yamaga - Thespakusatsu Gunma Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Koma R. (G) 6. Noda H. 4. Minoda K. 16. Miyabe T. (C) 36. Matsumura G. 22. Saso K. 18. Sato R. 8. Sawazaki R. 40. Higuchi D. 19. Tanaka S. 17. Taguchi Y.	13. Kondo I. (G) 2. Nakamura R. 16. Yamahara K. 3. Ohata R. 8. Kamigaki R. 22. Nuki M. 20. Shimokawa T. 27. Fujimura R. (C) 19. Farzan Sana M. 18. Tanaka S. 17. Hyakuda M.
Substitutes
38. Fujieda K. 39. Inoue A. 43. Kaneko K. 11. Kaneko S. 48. Kawakami K. 30. Kitazume K. 31. Kobayashi M. (G) 13. Murakami H. 5. Shirai T.	42. Harada T. 15. Kazama K. 30. Koyanagi T. 29. Matsumoto K. 99. Nakashima T. 28. Nodake J. 78. Okada S. (G) 14. Sakurai A. 52. Soma J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Saso K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Fujimura R. ↓, Nakashima T. ↑,
53', Nuki M. ↓, Sakurai A. ↑,
60', Farzan Sana M. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,
61', Shimokawa T. ↓, Kazama K. ↑,
63', Tanaka S. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
67', Sato R. ↓, Murakami H. ↑,
67', Sawazaki R. ↓, Kaneko S. ↑,
76', Hyakuda M. ↓, Harada T. ↑,
87', Taguchi Y. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
88', Saso K. ↓, Kitazume K. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 0, Fujieda K. ⚽,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 15th and 17th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Matsumoto Yamaga may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Matsumoto Yamaga has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

In this matchup, Matsumoto Yamaga is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Matsumoto Yamaga has recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:18 (averaging 1.5:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Matsumoto Yamaga against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 12:5 goals (averaging 2:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Yamaga	13	3	5	5	12:15	-3	14
18	Kusatsu	13	4	1	8	12:22	-10	13

Last Results with these Odds

Thespakusatsu Gunma - the odds 3.75 are the expected chance of winning is 23.88%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
18.10.26	Nagano Parceiro - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
Japan J3 League
11.10.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gainare Tottori	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LLWLW
- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J3 League
17.10.26	Gainare Tottori - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1 ✺
10.10.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Ryūkyū	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Ehime - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:1 ✺
26.09.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Roasso Kumamoto	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kochi United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
23.11.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Matsumoto Yamaga	6:2
05.07.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:3
Japan J2 League
30.10.21	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
25.04.21	Matsumoto Yamaga - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:0
02.12.20	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
19.07.20	Matsumoto Yamaga - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:0
16.09.17	Matsumoto Yamaga - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:0

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