Match Info

J3 League - Round 19

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Thespakusatsu Gunma

	1	X	2
	2	3.25	3.2
	2.05	3.3	3.15	Watch
	2.04	3.45	3.5
				Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.1
	2.05	3.42	3.19	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.12)	3.3 ↑ (3.2)	3.21 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
44.3%

Draw
27.5%

Thespakusatsu Gunma
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

27.6%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

Matsumoto Yamaga - Thespakusatsu Gunma Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Thespakusatsu will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Matsumoto Yamaga: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 44. Nonomura T. 19. Sugita H. 36. Matsumura G. 40. Higuchi D. 18. Ohashi H. 46. Yasunaga R. 17. Yamamoto R. 41. Murakoshi K. 10. Kikui Y. 42. Tanaka S.	13. Kondo I. (G) 30. Koyanagi T. 43. Nose S. 22. Takahashi Y. 20. Shimokawa T. 36. Adachi S. 37. Sehata G. 17. Yamanaka A. 7. Nishimura Y. 33. Sakurai A. 10. Takazawa Y.
Substitutes
11. Asakawa H. 34. Inafuku T. 35. Kanda S. (G) 30. Kokubu R. 20. Maeda R. 7. Mawatari K. 16. Miyabe T. 24. Ogawa D. 4. Takahashi S.	9. Aoki S. 11. Kagami T. 32. Kawata A. 14. Kikuchi K. 21. Kim Je-hee (G) 19. Mohamado F. 3. Ohata R. 18. Tanaka S. 8. Yamauchi R.
Coaches
Hayakawa T.	Okita M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Nishimura Y. ⚽, Yamanaka A. (A),
43', Matsumura G. 🟥,
45', 0 - 2, Koyanagi T. ⚽, Nishimura Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ohashi H. ↓, Takahashi S. ↑,
50', 0 - 3, Takahashi Y. ⚽,
56', Shimokawa T. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
56', Takazawa Y. ↓, Kawata A. ↑,
60', Higuchi D. ↓, Ogawa D. ↑,
60', Nonomura T. ↓, Kokubu R. ↑,
60', Yamamoto R. ↓, Mawatari K. ↑,
61', 1 - 3, Tanaka S. ⚽,
65', Nishimura Y. ↓, Yamauchi R. ↑,
65', Koyanagi T. ↓, Ohata R. ↑,
66', Mawatari K. 🟨,
81', Murakoshi K. ↓, Maeda R. ↑,
87', Sakurai A. ↓, Kikuchi K. ↑,
90+3', Kawata A. 🟨,
90+4', Kikui Y. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 3.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Matsumoto Yamaga might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:2. (average 2.2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
28.06.25	Tochigi - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:1 ✺
21.06.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
14.06.25	Ryūkyū - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Matsumoto Yamaga	4:2 ✺
Japan J3 League
07.06.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fukushima United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTWLL
- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J3 League
28.06.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Zweigen Kanazawa	0:1 ✺
22.06.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:0 ✺
15.06.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kamatamare Sanuki	3:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Kashima Antlers - Thespakusatsu Gunma	4:0 ✺
Japan J3 League
07.06.25	Tochigi - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
30.10.21	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
25.04.21	Matsumoto Yamaga - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:0
02.12.20	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
19.07.20	Matsumoto Yamaga - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:0
16.09.17	Matsumoto Yamaga - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:0
18.06.17	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2
18.09.16	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1

Upcoming Matches