Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday


	Welwalo Adigrat		Bahir Dar Kenema

	1	X	2
	3.75	2.88	2.02
	4.04	2.84	2.05	Watch
	3.8	2.8	2
	3.66	3.14	2.1	Watch
	4.2	2.9	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.89 ↓ (4.57)	2.91 ↓ (2.92)	2.03 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Welwalo Adigrat
23.5%

Draw
31.4%

Bahir Dar Kenema
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.1%

31.5%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

30.3%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Welwalo Adigrat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Bahir Dar Kenema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Welwalo Adigrat than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahir Dar Kenema than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Welwalo Adigrat - Bahir Dar Kenema Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Berhe S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 11).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Bahir Dar is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Welwalo Adigrat won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Welwalo Adigrat won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Welwalo Adigrat University FC
Ethiopian Premier League
24.12.25	Negele Arsi Ketema - Welwalo Adigrat	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Welwalo Adigrat - Ethiopia Bunna	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Ethiopia Nigd Bank - Welwalo Adigrat	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Welwalo Adigrat - Mekelle 70 Enderta	1:0 ✺
25.11.25	Welayta Dicha - Welwalo Adigrat	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 LTWWL
- Bahir Dar Kenema
Ethiopian Premier League
24.12.25	Bahir Dar Kenema - Fasil Kenema	0:0 ✺
19.12.25	Shire Endaselassie - Bahir Dar Kenema	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Sheger Ketema - Bahir Dar Kenema	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Bahir Dar Kenema - Ethiopian Medhin	1:0 ✺
25.11.25	Adama City - Bahir Dar Kenema	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
25.06.25	Bahir Dar Kenema - Welwalo Adigrat	3:0
21.09.24	Welwalo Adigrat - Bahir Dar Kenema	0:1
17.01.19	Welwalo Adigrat - Bahir Dar Kenema	1:0

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