Match Info

A-League Women - Round 16

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Ctrl cyber Pitch (Melbourne)

Referee: Mossin I. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	HOY TV
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 5
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne City		Brisbane Roar

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.7	3.9
	1.72	3.65	3.8
	1.77	4.07	4.08
	1.77	4.08	3.95	Watch
	1.73	3.6	3.7
	1.77	3.6	4.45	Watch
	1.77	3.8	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.55)	3.79 ↓ (4.58)	3.93 ↓ (4.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
52.5%

Draw
24.2%

Brisbane Roar
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

20.4%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.7%

21.2%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne City's form might have worsened.

Brisbane Roar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Roar than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Melbourne City will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Brisbane Roar will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Brisbane Roar (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Brisbane Roar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Mieres M. (G) 8. Apostolakis A. 5. Otto T. 13. Stott R. (C) 3. Turner D. 22. Henry B. 11. Jackson D. 6. McKenna L. 12. McMahon S. 9. McNamara H. 21. Keane A.	1. Lincoln C. (G) 8. Studer J. 22. Piazza A. 7. Hayashi M. (C) 11. Seidl M. 32. Woods A. 5. Medwin A. 27. Miller A. 4. Stephenson K. 15. Meyers K. 3. Brown D.
Substitutes
23. Barbieri M. (G) 7. Butrus D. 17. Jugovic K. 20. Karic C. 16. Roestbakken K. 15. Uchendu C.	2. Barker A. 6. Cuthbert R. 12. Franco T. (G) 47. Hanson K. 17. Jansen B. 18. Kinsella A.
Coaches
Matricciani M.	Smith A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Stephenson K. ⚽, Medwin A. (A),
13', 0 - 2, Stephenson K. ⚽,
36', 1 - 2, Stott R. ⚽,
41', 2 - 2, McNamara H. ⚽, Henry B. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
48', 3 - 2, Henry B. ⚽, McNamara H. (A),
51', Meyers K. ↓, Jansen B. ↑,
69', 4 - 2, Jackson D. ⚽,
71', Medwin A. ↓, Barker A. ↑,
79', Woods A. ↓, Cuthbert R. ↑,
79', Seidl M. ↓, Kinsella A. ↑,
79', Studer J. ↓, Hanson K. ↑,
80', McKenna L. ↓, Roestbakken K. ↑,
81', Barker A. 🟨,
82', 5 - 2, Keane A. ⚽,
85', Henry B. ↓, Butrus D. ↑,
85', McMahon S. ↓, Uchendu C. ↑,
88', McNamara H. ↓, Karic C. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 3.

Melbourne City is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Brisbane Roar is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Melbourne City is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 33:17. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:10. (average 1.9:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City FC Women
Australian A-League Women
04.02.26	Melbourne City - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Adelaide United - Melbourne City	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Perth Glory - Melbourne City	0:2 ✺
20.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
16.01.26	Melbourne City - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLWTL
- Brisbane Roar Women
Australian A-League Women
04.02.26	Sydney FC - Brisbane Roar	1:3 ✺
30.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Central Coast Mariners	2:2 ✺
23.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Canberra United	3:1 ✺
20.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
16.01.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Brisbane Roar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
20.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	1:1
26.03.25	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	0:4
11.01.25	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	2:0
02.03.24	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	2:0
28.12.23	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	5:3
02.12.22	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	3:0
24.02.22	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	0:1

Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide