Match Info

A-League - Round 19

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: King A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	SPOTV
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV
World	Onefootball


	Melbourne Victory		Adelaide United

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	4.75	Watch
	1.63	4.33	4.4
	1.58	4.45	4.7	Watch
	1.61	4.71	4.94
	1.61	4.68	4.69	Watch
	1.57	4.2	4.6
	1.61	4.65	4.96	Watch
	1.66	4	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.65)	4.44 ↑ (4)	4.66 ↑ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
58.7%

Draw
21.1%

Adelaide United
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

23%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

25.3%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Adelaide United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	5%	5%

Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Melbourne Victory (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Adelaide (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Melbourne Victory will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Melbourne Victory will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 4 - 80%). Adelaide (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Warshawsky J. (G) 22. Rawlins J. 15. Esposito S. 21. Roderick (C) 2. Davidson J. 8. Valadon J. 10. Genreau D. 17. Velupillay N. 64. Mata J. 23. Jelacic K. 44. Nduka C.	22. Smits J. (G) 14. Barnett J. 3. Vriends B. (C) 4. Kikianis P. 7. Kitto R. 12. Yull J. 55. Alagich E. 44. White R. 19. Dukuly Y. 10. Muniz J. 9. Jovanovic L.
Substitutes
11. Clarismario 25. Duncan J. (G) 14. Grimaldi M. 16. Inserra J. 7. Piscopo R. 34. Stella X. 9. Vergos N.	35. Burkitt B. 40. Cox E. (G) 23. Duzel L. 17. Folami B. 65. Garuccio J. 36. Madanha P. 52. Phillis S.
Coaches
Diles A.	Andrioli A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 1 - 0, Jelacic K. ⚽, Mata J. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Dukuly Y. ⚽,
42', Roderick 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Genreau D. ↓, Stella X. ↑,
61', Nduka C. 🟨,
63', Jelacic K. 🟨,
66', Nduka C. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
66', Jelacic K. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
66', Mata J. ↓, Clarismario ↑,
67', Alagich E. 🟨,
71', Muniz J. ↓, Duzel L. ↑,
77', Jovanovic L. ↓, Burkitt B. ↑,
79', Velupillay N. ↓, Piscopo R. ↑,
85', Yull J. ↓, Folami B. ↑,
86', Dukuly Y. ↓, Madanha P. ↑,
89', Vergos N. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 3.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, Melbourne Victory is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.6:1.2).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne Victory: 13.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
21.02.26	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	2:3 ✺
01.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	1:0 ✺
26.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Sydney	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTWLW
- Adelaide United
Australian A-League
20.02.26	Adelaide United - Perth Glory	4:0 ✺
14.02.26	Sydney - Adelaide United	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets	2:3 ✺
30.01.26	Adelaide United - Macarthur FC	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Adelaide United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
17.01.26	Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory	2:1
13.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	2:1
29.03.25	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	5:3
18.01.25	Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory	3:2
Australian Cup
21.09.24	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	1:0
Australian A-League
09.03.24	Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory	1:2
30.12.23	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	2:0

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