Match Info

A-League - Round 17

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Evans S. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne Victory		Brisbane Roar

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.1	5.25	Watch
	1.6	4.15	4.95	Watch
	1.63	4.24	5.37
	1.63	4.16	5.18	Watch
	1.62	3.8	4.8
	1.66	4.11	5.4	Watch
	1.62	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.73)	4.08 ↑ (3.6)	5.14 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
58.4%

Draw
23.2%

Brisbane Roar
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

25.5%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

22.3%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melbourne Victory's performance.

Brisbane Roar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Victory that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Roar than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brisbane Roar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	14.3%	21.4%

Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Brisbane will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne Victory: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Brisbane (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Melbourne Victory will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 4 - 80%). Brisbane (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Warshawsky J. (G) 22. Rawlins J. 15. Esposito S. 21. Roderick (C) 2. Davidson J. 10. Genreau D. 8. Valadon J. 17. Velupillay N. 64. Mata J. 23. Jelacic K. 44. Nduka C.	1. Bouzanis D. (C) 2. Salas Y. 5. Lode M. 3. Valkanis D. 23. McGarry J. 9. Long Ch. 8. Klein S. 47. Durrington J. 16. Dench M. 25. D'Agostino N. 19. Ruhs M.
Substitutes
11. Clarismario 29. Dragicevic O. 25. Duncan J. (G) 14. Grimaldi M. 16. Inserra J. 34. Stella X. 9. Vergos N.	15. Bility H. 7. Brazete J. 11. Freke M. (G) 44. Lauton J. 41. Shaw E. 17. Vidic J. 10. Vrakas G.
Coaches
Diles A.	Lema B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Nduka C. ⚽, Mata J. (A),
43', D'Agostino N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Valadon J. 🟨,
53', Ruhs M. 🟨,
57', Esposito S. 🟨,
58', Jelacic K. ↓, Clarismario ↑,
69', Velupillay N. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
69', Nduka C. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
71', Ruhs M. ↓, Shaw E. ↑,
71', Long Ch. ↓, Vrakas G. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, D'Agostino N. ⚽,
79', D'Agostino N. ↓, Vidic J. ↑,
81', Rawlins J. 🟨,
85', McGarry J. 🟨,
90+2', Dench M. ↓, Brazete J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 1.

Melbourne Victory has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Brisbane is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Melbourne Victory may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Melbourne Victory is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Brisbane: Amanatidis N. (Muscle Injury) Hore H. (Inactive) Maieroni N. (Yellow Cards) Stajic M. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Brisbane: D'Agostino N. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:24. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1:1).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne Victory: 13.33% Brisbane Roar: 3.11%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
06.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	2:3 ✺
01.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	1:0 ✺
26.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Sydney	4:0 ✺
17.01.26	Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWLL
- Brisbane Roar
Australian A-League
07.02.26	Brisbane Roar - Central Coast Mariners	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Newcastle Jets - Brisbane Roar	4:1 ✺
24.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Adelaide United	2:3 ✺
16.01.26	Perth Glory - Brisbane Roar	1:2 ✺
09.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Auckland FC	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
28.11.25	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory	1:0
01.03.25	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory	1:1
09.11.24	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	2:0
20.04.24	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	0:0
03.03.24	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory	3:2
29.04.23	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	0:1
06.01.23	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	0:1

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