Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 26

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: The Home of the Matildas (Melbourne)


	Melbourne Victory Youth		Dandenong City

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.8	1.43
	5.15	4.85	1.4
	5.6	5.6	1.43
	5.08	4.73	1.50	Watch
	4.9	5.16	1.49	Watch
	4.03	4.2	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.04 ↑ (3.55)	4.89 ↑ (4.1)	1.48 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory Youth
18.4%

Draw
19%

Dandenong City
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

22.2%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

21.6%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory Youth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne Victory Youth's form might have worsened.

Dandenong City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dandenong City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory Youth than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne Victory Youth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dandenong City than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dandenong City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Melbourne Victory Youth - Dandenong City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
41', 0 - 1, Atherinos T. ⚽,
45+1', 0 - 2, Latham J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 0 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Victoria Premier League and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Victory Youth is Relegated to Victoria Premier League

Victory Youth has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dandenong City is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Victory Youth may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Victory Youth has had a series of away games.

In this match, Dandenong City is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Victory Youth won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory Youth
Australian NPL Victoria
15.08.25	Hume City - Melbourne Victory Youth	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Dandenong Thunder - Melbourne Victory Youth	4:1 ✺
25.07.25	Preston Lions - Melbourne Victory Youth	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	St Albans Dinamo - Melbourne Victory Youth	3:1 ✺
04.07.25	Green Gully - Melbourne Victory Youth	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLLLL
- Dandenong City SC
Australian NPL Victoria
16.08.25	Dandenong City - Melbourne Knights	7:1 ✺
01.08.25	Port Melbourne Sharks - Dandenong City	1:1 ✺
25.07.25	Dandenong City - Oakleigh Cannons	1:0 ✺
19.07.25	Avondale - Dandenong City	1:1 ✺
04.07.25	Dandenong City - South Melbourne	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
09.05.25	Dandenong City - Melbourne Victory Youth	3:1

Melbourne Victory Youth - Dandenong City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide