Match Info

SPAIN: Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 28

Date: 23 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV


	Melilla		Illescas

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	4.33
	1.62	3.2	5.25
	1.68	3.25	5
	1.69	3.25	5.5
	1.68	3.25	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2.17)	3.29 ↑ (3.28)	5.02 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melilla
54.4%

Draw
27.6%

Illescas
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

27.6%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26.6%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melilla's performance.

Illescas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Illescas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melilla that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Illescas than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Illescas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Melilla - Illescas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Fernandez I. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Melilla has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Illescas is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Melilla is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Melilla won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
16.03.25	Conquense - Melilla	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Melilla - Rayo Majadahonda	0:0 ✺
02.03.25	Unión Sur Yaiza - Melilla	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Melilla - Real Madrid C	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Unión Adarve - Melilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL
- CD Illescas
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
16.03.25	Illescas - Atlético Paso	2:1 ✺
09.03.25	Colonia Moscardó - Illescas	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Illescas - Móstoles URJC	0:3 ✺
23.02.25	Getafe B - Illescas	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Illescas - Navalcarnero	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
10.11.24	Illescas - Melilla	1:3

Melilla - Illescas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide