Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 24

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Television Melilla


	Melilla		Real Jaén

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.82	3.7
	2.35	2.89	3.33
	2.14	2.82	3.77	Watch
	2.1	3.05	3.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.32)	2.9 ↑ (2.82)	3.65 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Melilla
42.8%

Draw
31.9%

Real Jaén
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

32.6%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

33.6%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Real Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Melilla - Real Jaén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Martos M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+10', 🟥,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melilla won 2.

Melilla has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Jaén is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Melilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Melilla might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Melilla won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Melilla won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Melilla - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 39.59%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
08.02.26	Melilla - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Xerez CD - Melilla	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Melilla - La Unión	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Minera - Melilla	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Melilla - Yeclano Deportivo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLTLW
- Real Jaén
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
15.02.26	Real Jaén - Minera	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Real Jaén - Estepona	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Almeria B - Real Jaén	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Real Jaén - Lorca Deportiva	4:2 ✺
11.01.26	CD Extremadura - Real Jaén	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
12.10.25	Real Jaén - Melilla	1:1
12.03.17	Real Jaén - Melilla	0:0
23.10.16	Melilla - Real Jaén	2:1
24.04.16	Melilla - Real Jaén	1:0
06.12.15	Real Jaén - Melilla	5:0
15.03.15	Real Jaén - Melilla	3:2
26.10.14	Melilla - Real Jaén	1:1

Upcoming Matches