Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 21

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Chapín (Jerez)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Xerez CD		Melilla

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.92	3.75
	1.98	2.93	4.47
	1.96	2.98	4.17	Watch
	2	2.8	3.8
	1.96	2.83	4.25
	1.96	2.85	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.73)	2.89 ↓ (3.13)	4.13 ↓ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xerez CD
46.3%

Draw
31.6%

Melilla
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

28.9%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

28.5%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xerez CD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Xerez CD's form might have worsened.

Melilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Xerez CD than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Xerez CD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Xerez CD - Melilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Charaf ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 15 in the zone Relegation).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Xerez is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Xerez won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Xerez CD	5	1	2	2	3:4	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Xerez CD
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
25.01.26	Antoniano - Xerez CD	3:2 ✺
18.01.26	Xerez CD - Águilas	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Almeria B - Xerez CD	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Xerez CD - Xerez Deportivo	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	CD Extremadura - Xerez CD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTWWL
- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
25.01.26	Melilla - La Unión	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Minera - Melilla	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Melilla - Yeclano Deportivo	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Linares Deportivo - Melilla	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Melilla - Recreativo Huelva	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
05.10.25	Melilla - Xerez CD	1:1
Club Friendly
07.08.24	Melilla - Xerez CD	1:2

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