Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 35

Date: 5 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)


	Melilla		San Fernando

	1	X	2
	3.5	3	2.1
	3.25	3	2.05
	3.5	3.2	2.1
	3.47	3.35	2.09
	3.6	3.09	2.09
	3.45	3	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (2.47)	3.11 ↑ (2.89)	2.09 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melilla
26.5%

Draw
29.5%

San Fernando
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

31.4%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

27.7%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melilla's form might have worsened.

San Fernando has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Fernando's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melilla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Fernando than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Fernando, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Melilla - San Fernando Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Salcedo J. (G) 2. Loren 19. Rodriguez M. 16. Caro J. 14. Koffi 3. Yuste A. 4. Suarez D. 22. Alassan A. 5. Selasi R. 7. Morillo V. 18. Siddiki O.	1. Fuoli D. (G) 12. Lopez A. 4. Farrando M. 23. Ramirez J. 15. Ruiz V. 7. Biabiany J. 10. Ramos D. 18. Naveira U. 20. Masogo A. 19. Martinez P. 9. Ribeiro
Substitutes
11. Bandaogo A. 8. Cotan A. 20. Garcia D. 10. Gonzalez J. 6. Hernandez P. 9. Jose Enrique 12. Macias A. 1. Montoya J. (G) 23. Niang M. 24. Victores A. (G)	11. Aquino D. 13. Arana E. (G) 21. Arroyo N. 22. Davila Y. 30. Duarte M. (G) 14. Fullana F. 16. Herrera C. 6. Molina D. 34. Rueda A. 17. Sanchez A. 36. Sanchez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Koffi ↓, Macias A. ↑,
16', Siddiki O. 🟨,
21', Biabiany J. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Caro J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Selasi R. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
62', Alassan A. ↓, Jose Enrique ↑,
64', Lopez A. ↓, Herrera C. ↑,
64', Biabiany J. ↓, Arroyo N. ↑,
71', Ribeiro ↓, Sanchez M. ↑,
80', Ruiz V. 🟨,
81', Masogo A. ↓, Molina D. ↑,
83', Siddiki O. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
83', Morillo V. ↓, Bandaogo A. ↑,
88', Yuste A. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Melilla won 3.

Melilla is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

San Fernando has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

San Fernando could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

San Fernando will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Melilla won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Melilla won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.04.24	Castellón - Melilla	1:0 ✺
21.04.24	Melilla - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
14.04.24	Real Murcia - Melilla	2:0 ✺
07.04.24	Ibiza - Melilla	4:3 ✺
31.03.24	Melilla - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLLT
- CD San Fernando
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.04.24	San Fernando - Real Madrid Castilla	1:3 ✺
21.04.24	Granada B - San Fernando	5:0 ✺
13.04.24	San Fernando - Intercity	1:1 ✺
06.04.24	Alcoyano - San Fernando	1:1 ✺
31.03.24	San Fernando - Ibiza	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
26.11.23	San Fernando - Melilla	4:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
20.01.19	Melilla - San Fernando	3:1
02.09.18	San Fernando - Melilla	0:0
06.05.18	Melilla - San Fernando	2:0
10.12.17	San Fernando - Melilla	0:2
19.02.17	Melilla - San Fernando	1:0
02.10.16	San Fernando - Melilla	0:0

Melilla - San Fernando: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide