Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 11

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, Television Melilla


	Melilla		Xerez Deportivo

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.7
	1.95	3.14	4.83
	2.06	2.94	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.17)	3.03 ↑ (3)	4.06 ↑ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melilla
46.6%

Draw
30.6%

Xerez Deportivo
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

30.3%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

29.1%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Xerez Deportivo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Xerez Deportivo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Melilla - Xerez Deportivo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 1 - 0, Comenge A. ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 1, Dieste C. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Melilla might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Melilla - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 41.89%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
09.11.25	Águilas - Melilla	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Melilla - CD Extremadura	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Antoniano - Melilla	3:2 ✺
19.10.25	Melilla - Atlético Malagueño	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Real Jaén - Melilla	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTLWT
- Xerez Deportivo FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
09.11.25	Xerez Deportivo - Almeria B	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Xerez Deportivo - Antoniano	2:0 ✺
25.10.25	CD Extremadura - Xerez Deportivo	3:2 ✺
19.10.25	Xerez Deportivo - Águilas	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	UCAM Murcia - Xerez Deportivo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TWLTL

Melilla - Xerez Deportivo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide