Match Info

Challenge Cup - Final

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Melita		Birżebbuġa St. Peters

	1	X	2
	2.58	2.96	2.5
	2.68	3.02	2.58	Watch
	2.6	3.04	2.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.61)	3.01 ↓ (3.19)	2.53 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melita
34.4%

Draw
30%

Birżebbuġa St. Peters
35.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35%

28.7%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

27.5%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Birżebbuġa St. Peters has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melita than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birżebbuġa St. Peters than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Melita - Birżebbuġa St. Peters Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Alex Bruno (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
72', 0 - 2, Lapira P. ⚽,
77', 0 - 3, Cassar Z. ⚽,

Preview

Recent form of Melita has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Birżebbuġa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Melita may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Melita won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Melita won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Melita - the odds 2.61 are the expected chance of winning is 35.04%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melita FC
Maltese Challenge League
19.04.26	Balzan - Melita	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Melita - Fgura United	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Swieqi United - Melita	Melita Awarded ✺
14.03.26	Melita - St. Andrews	3:0 ✺
08.03.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Melita	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LL?WL
- Birżebbuġa St. Peters
Maltese Challenge League
23.04.26	Swieqi United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	1:2 penalties ✺
19.04.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Sirens	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Balzan - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:3 ✺
04.04.26	St. Andrews - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Pietà Hotspurs	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
28.02.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Melita	2:1
21.12.25	Melita - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	0:2

Melita - Birżebbuġa St. Peters