Match Info

Primera C - Round 19

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Mercedes		Victoriano Arenas

	1	X	2
	2.37	2.60	3.10
	2.65	2.85	2.55
	2.46	2.54	3.21
	2.51	2.60	3.23	Watch
	2.40	2.50	3.15
	2.38	2.74	3.16
	2.37	2.60	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.7)	2.63 ↓ (2.88)	3.09 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mercedes
36.7%

Draw
34.1%

Victoriano Arenas
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

31.3%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

32.5%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mercedes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Victoriano Arenas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Victoriano Arenas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mercedes than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Victoriano Arenas than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Victoriano Arenas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mercedes - Victoriano Arenas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, Murillo E. ⚽,
84', 1 - 1, Soria S. ⚽,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mercedes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mercedes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Mercedes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Mercedes - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.37%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Victoriano Arenas - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.34%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Mercedes
Argentinian Primera C
06.07.26	Centro Español - Mercedes	0:3 ✺
27.06.26	Mercedes - Justo José de Urquiza	5:0 ✺
14.06.26	Lugano - Mercedes	1:0 ✺
06.06.26	Mercedes - Deportivo Paraguayo	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Puerto Nuevo - Mercedes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWLTT
- Victoriano Arenas
Argentinian Primera C
05.07.26	Victoriano Arenas - Deportivo Paraguayo	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Puerto Nuevo - Victoriano Arenas	2:1 ✺
13.06.26	Leandro N. Alem - Victoriano Arenas	0:0 ✺
07.06.26	Victoriano Arenas - Defensores de Cambaceres	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Juventud Unida de San Miguel - Victoriano Arenas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
14.03.26	Victoriano Arenas - Mercedes	1:0
24.11.24	Victoriano Arenas - Mercedes	2:1
22.06.24	Mercedes - Victoriano Arenas	1:0

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