Match Info

Primera C - Round 16

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Lugano		Mercedes

	1	X	2
	2.20	2.80	3.20
	2.18	2.82	3.4
	2.22	2.76	3.33
	2.28	2.71	3.49	Watch
	2.3	2.7	3.3
	2.22	2.78	3.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (1.95)	2.76 ↓ (3.1)	3.36 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
40.4%

Draw
32.7%

Mercedes
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

29%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

28%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugano's form might have worsened.

Mercedes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mercedes than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Lugano - Mercedes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Herrera P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Lugano will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.4:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Mercedes - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 24.95%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lugano
Argentinian Primera C
06.06.26	Argentino de Rosario - Lugano	2:1 ✺
30.05.26	Lugano - Deportivo Paraguayo	0:0 ✺
23.05.26	Estrella del Sur - Lugano	3:2 ✺
16.05.26	Leones de Rosario - Lugano	2:2 ✺
10.05.26	Lugano - Puerto Nuevo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTLTW
- Club Mercedes
Argentinian Primera C
06.06.26	Mercedes - Deportivo Paraguayo	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Puerto Nuevo - Mercedes	1:1 ✺
23.05.26	Mercedes - Leandro N. Alem	2:0 ✺
18.05.26	Deportivo Español - Mercedes	1:0 ✺
08.05.26	Defensores de Cambaceres - Mercedes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
17.08.25	Lugano - Mercedes	0:1
02.05.25	Mercedes - Lugano	1:1
26.10.24	Mercedes - Lugano	2:2
27.05.24	Lugano - Mercedes	0:0
Argentinian Primera D
09.10.23	Mercedes - Lugano	2:1
02.07.23	Lugano - Mercedes	2:1
01.04.23	Lugano - Mercedes	2:1

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