Match Info

Date: 19 March 2022, Saturday


	Merstham		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.7	1.71
	4.2	3.7	1.66
	4.22	3.81	1.77
	3.75	3.75	1.73
	4.55	4.05	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (2.53)	3.8 ↑ (3.71)	1.7 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merstham
22.3%

Draw
24%

Hornchurch
53.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

24.1%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

23.9%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merstham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Merstham's form might have worsened.

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hornchurch's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merstham than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Merstham, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hornchurch, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Merstham - Hornchurch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merstham won 1.

Merstham has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Hornchurch is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Hornchurch could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Hornchurch is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Merstham won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Merstham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merstham
English Isthmian League Premier Division
12.03.22	Bishops Stortford - Merstham	6:0 ✺
08.03.22	Merstham - Cheshunt	0:1 ✺
05.03.22	Merstham - Leatherhead	1:1 ✺
26.02.22	Haringey Borough - Merstham	1:0 ✺
15.02.22	Margate - Merstham	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- AFC Hornchurch
English Isthmian League Premier Division
12.03.22	Hornchurch - Enfield Town	1:2 ✺
08.03.22	Potters Bar Town - Hornchurch	1:2 ✺
01.03.22	Hornchurch - Carshalton Athletic	1:1 ✺
26.02.22	Leatherhead - Hornchurch	0:2 ✺
19.02.22	Hornchurch - East Thurrock United	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English Isthmian League Premier Division
06.11.21	Hornchurch - Merstham	1:0
19.09.20	Hornchurch - Merstham	2:1
15.02.20	Hornchurch - Merstham	2:2
10.08.19	Merstham - Hornchurch	1:2
26.01.19	Merstham - Hornchurch	3:0
30.10.18	Hornchurch - Merstham	1:1
English FA Trophy
15.11.14	Hornchurch - Merstham	4:2

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