Match Info

National League North - Round 5

Date: 25 August 2025, Monday


	Merthyr Town		Scarborough Athletic

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.4	2.5
	2.25	3.5	2.55
	2.42	3.45	2.58
	2.42	3.6	2.59
	2.62	3.35	2.53	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.75
	2.43	3.48	2.56
	2.09	3.37	2.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.09)	3.43 ↑ (3.37)	2.62 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
38.5%

Draw
26.7%

Scarborough Athletic
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

26.5%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

27.1%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Scarborough Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Merthyr Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Scarborough Athletic than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Merthyr Town - Scarborough Athletic Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Scarborough (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Rees R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
58', 1 - 1, Walker S. ⚽,
61', 1 - 2, Wiles A. ⚽,
85', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Recent performances by Merthyr have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Scarborough is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Merthyr Town - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 42.76%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Scarborough Athletic - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 30.71%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English National League North
23.08.25	Curzon Ashton - Merthyr Town	0:3 ✺
19.08.25	Merthyr Town - Marine	1:3 ✺
16.08.25	Peterborough Sports - Merthyr Town	0:3 ✺
09.08.25	Merthyr Town - Southport	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.25	Merthyr Town - Cardiff City U21	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLWWL
- Scarborough Athletic
English National League North
23.08.25	Scarborough Athletic - Peterborough Sports	3:1 ✺
19.08.25	Chorley - Scarborough Athletic	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Scarborough Athletic - Fylde	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Kidderminster Harriers - Scarborough Athletic	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Ossett United - Scarborough Athletic	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WTWLW

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