Match Info

Azadegan League - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Mes Sungun		Navad Urmia

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.56	3.17	Watch
	2.58	2.51	3.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.58)	2.54 ↑ (2.51)	3.18 ↓ (3.19)

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mes Sungun
35.2%

Draw
36.1%

Navad Urmia
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

36.2%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

32%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mes Sungun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Navad Urmia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mes Sungun than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Navad Urmia than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

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Key Events of the Match

(3 - 0)

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by Mes Sungun have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Navad Urmia has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mes Sungun won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Mes Sungun - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.25%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mes Sungun FSC
Iran Division 1
15.02.26	Mes Kerman - Mes Sungun	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Mes Sungun - Fard Alborz	0:0 ✺
02.02.26	Pars Jonoubi Jam - Mes Sungun	5:0 ✺
27.01.26	Mes Sungun - Ario Eslamshahr	0:1 ✺
21.01.26	Havadar - Mes Sungun	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 TTLLW
- Navad Urmia
Iran Division 1
15.02.26	Navad Urmia - Mes Shahr-e Babak Kerman	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Damash Gilan - Navad Urmia	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Navad Urmia - Naft va Gaz Gachsaran	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Besat Kermanshah - Navad Urmia	Besat Kermanshah awarded ✺
21.01.26	Navad Urmia - Niroye Zamini	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLT?L

Latest Head to Head

Iran Division 1
30.09.25	Navad Urmia - Mes Sungun	3:0

Mes Sungun - Navad Urmia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide