Match Info

Virsliga - Round 26

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Rīgas Hanzas vidusskolas stadions (Riga)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV
World	Onefootball


	Metta		Jelgava

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.75	3.3	1.82
	3.15	3.05	2.12	Watch
	4.29	3.61	1.81
	9.42	4.99	1.30	Watch
	3.9	3.25	1.8
	3.2	3.18	2.12	Watch
	3.34	3.44	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.44 ↑ (3.5)	3.55 ↓ (3.68)	1.84 (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metta
21.4%

Draw
26.8%

Jelgava
51.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

24.7%

49.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

20.9%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Jelgava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metta than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Metta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jelgava, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Metta - Jelgava Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Metta will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Jelgava will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jelgava: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Jelgava (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Metta (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Metta (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Jelgava (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sorokins A. (G) 17. Kangars A. 4. Vilnis K. (C) 8. Kamara M. 5. Minkevics I. 2. Scremin G. 29. Bangura A. 15. Cinajevs D. 27. Cesnieks K. 21. Rekis K. 9. Saleh S.	1. Dvorak A. (G) 15. Ullman O. 5. Alekseiciks K. 6. Penkevics K. (C) 17. Yuzvak A. 9. Becers R. 22. Purs V. 11. Hasek M. 24. Hasek F. 28. Polasek M. 20. Emenike K.
Substitutes
18. Evelons E. 11. Ivulans M. 30. Kamara S. 23. Karimu M. 10. Klavinskis R. 19. Molotkovs A. 32. Plavins K. (G) 14. Smilskalns G.	25. Boroduska E. 26. Deruzinskis R. 23. Dreimanis A. 14. Ivanovs M. 7. Janovskis A. 16. Leitis T. (G) 19. Petersons A. 18. Susts M. 3. Zaleiko G.
Coaches
Riherts A.	Basovs A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Emenike K. ⚽, Dvorak A. (A),
17', Alekseiciks K. 🟨,
18', Rekis K. 🟨,
28', Kangars A. 🟨,
34', Becers R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
57', Rekis K. ↓, Ivulans M. ↑,
57', Cesnieks K. ↓, Kamara S. ↑,
58', Emenike K. ↓, Deruzinskis R. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Deruzinskis R. ⚽,
63', Bangura A. ↓, Klavinskis R. ↑,
63', Saleh S. ↓, Evelons E. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Ivulans M. (Pen),
69', Becers R. ↓, Boroduska E. ↑,
69', Penkevics K. 🟨,
74', 2 - 2, Evelons E. ⚽, Scremin G. (A),
83', Klavinskis R. 🟨,
84', Scremin G. ↓, Molotkovs A. ↑,
89', Polasek M. ↓, Janovskis A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Virsliga (Relegation) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metta won 2.

Recent performances by Metta have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jelgava is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Metta has had a series of away games.

Jelgava might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Metta won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Metta won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Metta
Latvian Virsliga
03.08.25	Auda Riga - Metta	0:1 ✺
27.07.25	Riga - Metta	3:2 ✺
19.07.25	Metta - RFS	0:4 ✺
Latvian Cup
13.07.25	Mārupe - Metta	1:4 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
06.07.25	Grobiņa - Metta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.4 WLLWW
- FS Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga
02.08.25	Jelgava - Liepāja	1:2 ✺
27.07.25	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	2:0 ✺
20.07.25	Jelgava - Super Nova	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Auda Riga - Jelgava	2:0 ✺
01.07.25	Riga - Jelgava	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
13.06.25	Jelgava - Metta	2:1
18.04.25	Metta - Jelgava	0:0
22.09.24	Metta - Jelgava	2:0
01.07.24	Jelgava - Metta	1:0
11.05.24	Metta - Jelgava	3:0
29.03.24	Jelgava - Metta	0:1
22.10.23	Metta - Jelgava	0:1

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