Match Info

Virsliga - Round 25

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadions Celtnieks (Daugavpils)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, Virsliga Plus
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	BFC Daugavpils		Jelgava

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.10
	1.94	3.40	3.25	Watch
	2.10	3.50	3.41
	2.06	3.48	3.38	Watch
	2.07	3.40	3.30
	2.01	3.28	3.35	Watch
	2.07	3.20	3.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.96)	3.36 ↓ (3.53)	3.27 (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFC Daugavpils
44.8%

Draw
27.2%

Jelgava
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

25.8%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

24.5%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFC Daugavpils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Jelgava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Beks J. (G) 37. Mihalcovs G. 5. Papa 20. Taty C. 34. Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. 10. Ivanovs E. (C) 8. Skrebels R. 11. Yakubu J. 4. Mukwelle W. 9. Traore A. 3. Ayebadiepreye D.	1. Dvorak A. (G) 13. Novikovs J. 4. Kangars A. 27. Alekseiciks K. 3. Semesko M. 19. Petersons A. (C) 9. Becers R. 11. Hasek M. 29. Zaleiko G. 8. Melkis R. 17. Rataj T.
Substitutes
77. Aizups R. 2. Baikovs R. 66. Bujanovs K. 14. Dauksts R. 27. Kopilovs M. 19. Pinaskins E. 42. Saveljevs A. 1. Saveljevs J. (G) 85. Voitkevics R.	30. Belanik S. (G) 28. Deklavs A. 23. Dreimanis A. 24. Hasek F. 21. Kacanovs G. 16. Leitis T. (G) 20. Patika G. 22. Pudil M. 18. Smaukstelis E.
Coaches
Kurbatov K.	Basovs A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Ayebadiepreye D. ⚽, Taty C. (A),
38', Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. 🟨,
45+1', Semesko M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 2 - 0, Yakubu J. ⚽, Traore A. (A),
53', Skrebels R. 🟨,
56', 2 - 1, Melkis R. ⚽,
62', Ayebadiepreye D. 🟨,
64', Becers R. ↓, Pudil M. ↑,
64', Petersons A. ↓, Hasek F. ↑,
68', Rataj T. ↓, Patika G. ↑,
81', Melkis R. ↓, Dreimanis A. ↑,
87', Alekseiciks K. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 3.

Daugavpils has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jelgava has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Daugavpils has had a series of away games.

Daugavpils will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:19. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Daugavpils won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:7. (average 1.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	10	9	12	35:35	0	39
7	Jelgava	31	8	8	15	32:49	-17	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFC Daugavpils
Latvian Virsliga
26.07.26	Auda Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:0 ✺
19.07.26	Ogre United - BFC Daugavpils	0:4 ✺
Latvian Cup
11.07.26	Riga Mariners - BFC Daugavpils	3:4 penalties ✺
Latvian Virsliga
04.07.26	BFC Daugavpils - Liepāja	3:1 ✺
30.06.26	RFS - BFC Daugavpils	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWWWL
- FS Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga
26.07.26	Jelgava - Liepāja	0:2 ✺
20.07.26	Jelgava - RFS	0:1 ✺
Latvian Cup
12.07.26	RFS - Jelgava	2:0 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
03.07.26	Riga - Jelgava	3:0 ✺
29.06.26	Jelgava - Grobiņa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
31.05.26	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	1:1
16.04.26	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	1:0
18.10.25	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	0:0
27.07.25	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	2:0
25.05.25	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	1:0
10.04.25	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	4:1
01.09.24	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	0:0

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