Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 4

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Asuncion (Asuncion Mita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Guatemala	Azteca Guatemala


	Mictlán		Deportivo Achuapa

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	5.15
	1.63	3.7	5.31
	1.63	3.76	5.28	Watch
	1.62	3.4	5
	1.67	3.51	5.42	Watch
	1.62	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.77)	3.55 ↑ (3.38)	5.19 ↑ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mictlán
56.5%

Draw
25.9%

Deportivo Achuapa
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.5%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

26.8%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mictlán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Deportivo Achuapa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mictlán than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Achuapa than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Mictlán - Deportivo Achuapa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mictlán (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Mictlán will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Faust J. (G) 80. Chavasco G. 26. Escobar J. 29. Fajardo W. 30. Folleco R. 7. Herrarte K. 77. Lemus M. 34. Monges R. 44. Ramirez W. 9. Rodriguez J. 19. Salguero O.	12. Cabezas Quinonez E. A. (G) 13. Castrillo C. 30. Corado J. 6. Corado Ruano R. E. 2. Gaitan M. 10. Macal E. 91. Matta A. . Mejia C. 66. Santos C. . Suazo D. 9. Williams J.
Substitutes
88. Chinchilla C. . Cuque D. 13. Figueroa J. (G) 3. Herrarte J. . Martinez C. 28. Monroy E. 6. Osorio J. . Racancoj J. 31. Rivas B.	28. Asprilla J. 88. Carabali Y. 21. de Leon I. . Derlis A. 22. Gonzalez C. 4. Lopez P. 27. Ruiz L. (G) 20. Sanchez E. 25. Tiul K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Corado J. 🟨,
37', 🟨,
37', Corado J. 🟨,
38', Rodriguez J. (Penalty Awarded),
43', 0 - 1, Castrillo C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Williams J. 🟨,
55', Williams J. ↓, Derlis A. ↑,
55', Mejia C. ↓, Carabali Y. ↑,
55', Macal E. ↓, Sanchez E. ↑,
61', Lemus M. ↓, Racancoj J. ↑,
61', Herrarte K. ↓, Chinchilla C. ↑,
74', 🟨,
74', 🟨,
75', Escobar J. ↓, Herrarte J. ↑,
75', Fajardo W. ↓, Martinez C. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: ) and 10).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Achuapa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mictlán is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mictlán won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Mictlán won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Mictlán
Guatemala Liga Nacional
29.01.26	Malacateco - Mictlán	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Mictlán - Deportivo Guastatoya	0:0 ✺
22.01.26	Municipal - Mictlán	1:2 ✺
10.12.25	Municipal - Mictlán	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Mictlán - Municipal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 LTWLL
- Deportivo Achuapa
Guatemala Liga Nacional
28.01.26	Deportivo Achuapa - Deportivo Mixco	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Marquense - Deportivo Achuapa	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Deportivo Achuapa - Comunicaciones	2:3 ✺
18.12.25	Municipal - Deportivo Achuapa	3:0 ✺
14.12.25	Deportivo Achuapa - Municipal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
16.11.25	Deportivo Achuapa - Mictlán	1:0
13.09.25	Mictlán - Deportivo Achuapa	1:0
Club Friendly
07.01.24	Mictlán - Deportivo Achuapa	0:1

Mictlán - Deportivo Achuapa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide