Match Info

Superliga - Championship Group - Round 27

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday

Location: MCH Arena (Herning)

Referee: Putros S. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Sporty TV
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Usa	Fanatiz


	Midtjylland		AGF Aarhus

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.8	Watch
	1.98	3.55	3.65
	2.04	3.59	3.88
	1.98	3.6	3.69	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.6
	1.97	3.44	3.72	Watch
	2	3.7	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2)	3.53 ↓ (3.7)	3.68 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Midtjylland
47.7%

Draw
26.7%

AGF Aarhus
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

25.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

26.2%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Midtjylland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

AGF Aarhus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Midtjylland than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AGF Aarhus than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.4%	26.9%	7.7%

Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Midtjylland will win (votes: 17 - 68%). Aarhus will win (votes: 2 - 8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Midtjylland: 49.7% – 86.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarhus (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Aarhus (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarhus (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Olafsson E. (G) 3. Lee Han-Beom 6. Erlic M. 22. Bech Sorensen M. (C) 11. Osorio D. 20. Byskov V. 21. Castillo D. 55. Bak V. 10. Cho Gue-Sung 41. Gogorza M. 58. Simsir A.	1. Hansen J. (G) 2. Beijmo F. (C) 3. Dalsgaard H. 19. Kahl E. 11. Links G. 4. Knudsen M. 17. Yakob K. 26. Andersen J. 31. Bech T. 10. Arnstad K. 13. Serra J.
Substitutes
14. Chilufya E. 38. Emefile J. 7. Franculino 13. Gabriel A. 39. Junior Ze 35. Konteh B. 1. Lossl J. (G) 34. Ndiaye A. 29. Paulinho	57. Bogere J. 39. Emmery F. 21. Hedenstad M. (G) 40. Jensen-Abbew J. 8. Jorgensen S. 20. Kristjansson T. 9. Mortensen P. 6. Poulsen N. 5. Tingager F.
Coaches
Tullberg M.	Poulsen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Dalsgaard H. ⚽,
45+1', Simsir A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', Castillo D. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
54', Gogorza M. ↓, Franculino ↑,
57', Beijmo F. 🟨,
63', Serra J. ↓, Mortensen P. ↑,
63', Andersen J. ↓, Tingager F. ↑,
70', Osorio D. 🟨,
71', Cho Gue-Sung ↓, Chilufya E. ↑,
75', Yakob K. ↓, Poulsen N. ↑,
77', Poulsen N. 🟨,
83', 1 - 1, Hansen J. (Own goal),
84', Bak V. ↓, Emefile J. ↑,
90', Knudsen M. ↓, Jorgensen S. ↑,
90', Dalsgaard H. ↓, Jensen-Abbew J. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 1, Emefile J. ⚽, Paulinho (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Midtjylland won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Midtjylland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Midtjylland is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Midtjylland: Billing P. (Injury) Bravo P. (Yellow Cards) Chilufya E. (Inactive) Diao O. (Red Card) Djabi A. (Injury) Junior Brumado (Inactive) Mbabu K. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Aarhus: Carstensen R. (Inactive) Poulsen N. (Inactive) Solbakken M. (Inactive) Tchamche S. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Midtjylland won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:17. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Midtjylland won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:7. (average 2.2:0.7).

Outrights of Danish Superliga for now

Midtjylland: 30.22% Aarhus: 0.52%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Midtjylland	9	5	4	0	17:9	8	19
11	Aarhus	9	0	5	4	11:17	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Midtjylland - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 47.16%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Midtjylland
Danish Superliga
12.04.26	Brøndby - Midtjylland	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Midtjylland - SønderjyskE	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Viborg - Midtjylland	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Midtjylland - Nottingham Forest	1:3 penalties ✺
Danish Superliga
15.03.26	Midtjylland - Nordsjælland	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WTTLL
- AGF Aarhus
Danish Superliga
10.04.26	AGF Aarhus - Nordsjælland	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Viborg - AGF Aarhus	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	AGF Aarhus - Brøndby	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	SønderjyskE - AGF Aarhus	1:1 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
08.03.26	Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Danish Landspokal Cup
08.03.26	Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus	1:1
12.02.26	AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland	0:1
Danish Superliga
03.11.25	Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus	1:1
03.08.25	AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland	0:0
04.05.25	Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus	3:1
13.04.25	AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland	1:1
27.10.24	Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus	2:0

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