Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: MCH Arena (Herning)

Referee: Grinfeld O. (Isr)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	VIX App


	Midtjylland		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.5	4.5
	1.68	4.35	4.75
	1.68	4.4	4.77
	1.61	4.43	4.62	Watch
	1.68	4.58	4.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.74)	4.45 ↑ (4.11)	4.64 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Midtjylland
57.8%

Draw
21.5%

Sturm Graz
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

23.3%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

22.8%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Midtjylland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Midtjylland than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	5.6%	5.6%

Midtjylland - Sturm Graz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Midtjylland (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Midtjylland will win (47 of 52 users predict this - 90.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.37% – 98.39%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Midtjylland will win (23 of 25 users predict this - 92%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Midtjylland (votes: 24 - 92.3%). Sturm (votes: 2 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Olafsson E. (G) 4. Diao O. 3. Lee Han-Beom 22. Bech Sorensen M. (C) 43. Mbabu K. 19. Bravo P. 8. Billing P. 21. Castillo D. 10. Cho Gue-Sung 7. Franculino 74. Junior Brumado	1. Christensen O. (G) 5. Oermann T. 47. Aiwu E. 24. Lavalee D. 17. Karic E. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 8. Rozga F. 21. Chukwuani T. 19. Horvat T. 77. Malone M. 20. Jatta S.
Substitutes
55. Bak V. 20. Byskov V. 14. Chilufya E. 33. Djabi A. 90. Etim F. 13. Gabriel A. 35. Konteh Krubally B. 1. Lossl J. (G) 29. Paulinho 58. Simsir A. 60. Ugboh M. (G)	22. Beck J. 26. Beganovic B. 40. Bignetti M. (G) 35. Geyrhofer N. 38. Grgic L. 27. Haider G. 25. Hierlander S. 43. Hodl J. 2. Mitchell J. 39. Weinhandl L. 32. Wiener-Pucher C. (G)
Coaches
Tullberg M.	Saumel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Junior Brumado 🟨,
7', 1 - 0, Christensen O. (Own goal),
24', Franculino 🟨,
45', Billing P. 🟨,
45+3', Malone M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rozga F. ↓, Hodl J. ↑,
59', Malone M. ↓, Grgic L. ↑,
60', Cho Gue-Sung ↓, Simsir A. ↑,
69', Mbabu K. ↓, Gabriel A. ↑,
69', Junior Brumado ↓, Chilufya E. ↑,
71', Aiwu E. 🟨,
73', Jatta S. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
73', Oermann T. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,
84', Chukwuani T. ↓, Beck J. ↑,
88', Franculino ↓, Byskov V. ↑,
89', 2 - 0, Diao O. ⚽, Simsir A. (A),

Preview

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Recently, Midtjylland has had a series of away games.

In this match, Midtjylland is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Midtjylland: Dani Silva (Injury) Ejeheri O. (Surgery) Gogorza M. (Muscle Injury) Osorio D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Sturm: Beck J. (Inactive) Borkovic A. (Inactive) Kayombo A. (Ankle Injury) Khudyakov D. (Wrist Injury) Malic A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sturm: Gorenc Stankovic J. (Injury)

We predict that Midtjylland will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Midtjylland won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Midtjylland won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Midtjylland
Danish Superliga
20.09.25	Midtjylland - Viborg	2:0 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
17.09.25	Aalborg BK - Midtjylland	0:3 ✺
Danish Superliga
14.09.25	Nordsjælland - Midtjylland	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Brøndby - Midtjylland	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.08.25	KuPS Kuopio - Midtjylland	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLWW
- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
20.09.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
17.09.25	Röthis - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
14.09.25	Sturm Graz - Austria Wien	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Grazer AK - Sturm Graz	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.08.25	Sturm Graz - Bodø Glimt	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
03.11.22	Midtjylland - Sturm Graz	2:0
08.09.22	Sturm Graz - Midtjylland	1:0
Club Friendly
01.07.15	Sturm Graz - Midtjylland	0:2

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