Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Ciochirca P. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Germany	Sky Go Germany
Serbia	SportKlub 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
World	Onefootball


	Grazer AK		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.62	Watch
	4.8	4.1	1.62
	4.95	4.15	1.6
	5.32	4.24	1.63
	4.63	3.90	1.69	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.65
	4.47	4.45	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.85 ↓ (5.23)	4.11 ↑ (3.95)	1.64 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grazer AK
19.4%

Draw
23%

Sturm Graz
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18%

23.8%

58.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

21.9%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grazer AK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grazer AK than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Grazer AK - Sturm Graz Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Grazer will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Sturm will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meierhofer J. (G) 3. Vraa-Jensen L. 2. Pines D. 82. Owusu B. 28. Frieser D. 8. Koch T. 6. Fofana S. 14. Italiano J. 22. Harakate R. 11. Cipot T. 9. Maderner D. (C)	1. Christensen O. (G) 5. Oermann T. 47. Aiwu E. 24. Lavalee D. 17. Karic E. 19. Horvat T. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 21. Chukwuani T. 10. Kiteishvili O. 38. Grgic L. 20. Jatta S.
Substitutes
15. Graf L. 25. Hofleitner A. 18. Jano Z. 4. Kreuzriegler M. 10. Lichtenberger C. 26. Nicht C. (G) 24. Paumgartner T. 7. Satin M. 20. Schriebl T.	22. Beck J. 26. Beganovic B. 40. Bignetti M. (G) 27. Haider G. 25. Hierlander S. 43. Hodl J. 8. Rozga F.
Coaches
Feldhofer F.	Saumel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Graf L. 🟨,
30', Karic E. 🟨,
39', Gorenc Stankovic J. ↓, Hodl J. ↑,
41', 0 - 1, Jatta S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Kiteishvili O. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,
64', 0 - 2, Horvat T. ⚽, Oermann T. (A),
70', Frieser D. ↓, Hofleitner A. ↑,
70', Maderner D. ↓, Satin M. ↑,
70', Cipot T. ↓, Jano Z. ↑,
76', Hodl J. 🟨,
77', Oermann T. ↓, Haider G. ↑,
80', Graf L. ↓, Lichtenberger C. ↑,
81', Koch T. 🟥,
84', Harakate R. ↓, Kreuzriegler M. ↑,
87', Chukwuani T. 🟨,
90+3', Grgic L. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
90+6', 0 - 3, Jatta S. ⚽,

Preview

Grazer is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sturm has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Grazer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sturm is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Sturm: Borkovic A. (Knee Injury) Kayombo A. (Ankle Injury) Khudyakov D. (Wrist Injury)

There are questionable in Sturm: Malic A. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Grazer won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 1.3:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Grazer won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grazer AK
Austrian Bundesliga
24.08.25	Rheindorf Altach - Grazer AK	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Grazer AK - Swarovski Tirol	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Grazer AK	5:0 ✺
03.08.25	Grazer AK - Austria Wien	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.25	Grazer AK - Floridsdorfer AC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTLTL
- Sturm Graz
UEFA Champions League
26.08.25	Sturm Graz - Bodø Glimt	2:1 ✺
20.08.25	Bodø Glimt - Sturm Graz	5:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
16.08.25	Ried - Sturm Graz	1:3 ✺
10.08.25	Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.25	Sturm Graz - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
09.03.25	Grazer AK - Sturm Graz	1:2
19.10.24	Sturm Graz - Grazer AK	5:2
Austrian OFB Cup
02.11.23	Grazer AK - Sturm Graz	2:3
19.10.22	Grazer AK - Sturm Graz	0:1

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