Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3, Sky Sport Mix
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Play Sports 3, VOOsport World 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	BTV Action
Canada	DAZN Canada
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 3, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Sport 3
Germany	RTL+, Sky Sport 2, Sky Sport Mix
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	Premier Sports 2 ROI
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Mexico	Claro Sports, Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 3 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	Sport TV+
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Prime, Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-africa	SuperSport Football, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, Sky Sport Mix
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Milan		Benfica

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	2.9
	2.30	3.50	2.95
	2.35	3.55	3
	2.36	3.62	3.04
	2.36	3.65	3.01	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.95
	2.34	3.62	3.05
	2.32	3.55	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.09)	3.57 ↓ (3.6)	2.98 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milan
41.2%

Draw
26.7%

Benfica
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

26.3%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

29.2%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Milan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benfica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.8%	18.6%	11.6%

Milan - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Milan will win (votes: 30 - 69.8%). Benfica will win (votes: 5 - 11.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 18.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 56.1% – 83.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Milan (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Benfica (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Milan (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Milan (1.42) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.73) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - yes (1.62) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milan will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Benfica (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Maignan M. (C) 42. Terracciano F. 5. De Winter K. 31. Pavlovic S. 21. Chukwueze S. 80. Musah Y. 30. Jashari A. 33. Bartesaghi D. 20. Hutchinson O. 70. Cisse A. 9. Ramos G.	1. Trubin A. (G) 58. Banjaqui D. 3. Circati A. 44. Araujo T. 34. El Karouani S. 8. Aursnes F. (C) 36. Palhinha J. 11. Lukebakio D. 10. Sudakov G. 13. Kaminski J. 22. Duran J.
Substitutes
73. Camarda F. 2. Estupinan P. 46. Gabbia M. 34. Gila M. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 14. Modric L. 22. Moreira D. 11. Pulisic C. 12. Rabiot A. 56. Saelemaekers A. 23. Tomori F. 96. Torriani L. (G)	72. Anisio 18. Barreiro L. 5. Barrenechea E. 26. Dahl S. 30. Echeverri C. 2. Lenglet C. 16. Manu Silva 14. Pavlidis V. 25. Prestianni G. 27. Rafa Silva 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G)
Coaches
Amorim R.	Silva M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Pavlovic S. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Lukebakio D. ⚽, Kaminski J. (A),
26', El Karouani S. 🟨,
37', Duran J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hutchinson O. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
46', Terracciano F. ↓, Gila M. ↑,
53', 0 - 2, Kaminski J. ⚽, El Karouani S. (A),
57', Cisse A. ↓, Moreira D. ↑,
57', Bartesaghi D. ↓, Saelemaekers A. ↑,
70', Aursnes F. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
70', Sudakov G. ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
73', Jashari A. ↓, Rabiot A. ↑,
77', Banjaqui D. 🟨,
80', Kaminski J. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
80', Duran J. ↓, Pavlidis V. ↑,
84', Barreiro L. 🟨,
88', El Karouani S. ↓, Dahl S. ↑,
90+2', Pavlidis V. 🟨,

Preview

Milan is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Benfica is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Milan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Milan has had a series of away games.

Milan might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Milan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Milan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Benfica: 8.52% AC Milan: 7.57%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	2:0	2	3
30	AC Milan	1	0	0	1	0:2	-2	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
12.09.26	Lazio - Milan	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Juventus - Milan	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Milan - Venezia	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Torino - Milan	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Manchester United - Milan	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TTWWW
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
13.09.26	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
09.09.26	Moreirense - Benfica	0:4 ✺
05.09.26	Marítimo - Benfica	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Benfica - Estoril Praia	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.08.26	AGF Aarhus - Benfica	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

International Champions Cup
28.07.19	Milan - Benfica	0:1

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