Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 27 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Cepheus Park (Randers)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Denmark	Disney+
Germany	Laola1
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	Sport TV5
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	AGF Aarhus		Benfica

	1	X	2
	7.00	4.75	1.36	Watch
	6.50	5.25	1.40
	6.75	4.80	1.41
	6.70	5.16	1.40
	6.4	5.26	1.42	Watch
	6.85	5.50	1.34
	7.69	4.96	1.39
	6.80	5.20	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.84 ↓ (7)	5.11 ↑ (4.6)	1.39 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

AGF Aarhus
13.8%

Draw
18.4%

Benfica
67.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.3%

20.2%

66.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.7%

19.2%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AGF Aarhus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AGF Aarhus than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	6.7%	86.7%

AGF Aarhus - Benfica Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Hedenstad M. (G) 26. Andersen J. 44. Camara M. 33. Callo L. 29. Carstensen R. 16. Jonsson J. 10. Arnstad K. (C) 11. Links G. 31. Bech T. 13. Serra J. 23. Anderson M.	24. Soares S. (G) 6. Bah A. 44. Araujo T. (C) 2. Lenglet C. 26. Dahl S. 18. Barreiro L. 5. Barrenechea E. 27. Rafa Silva 10. Sudakov G. 25. Prestianni G. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
28. Bogere J. 39. Emmery F. 1. Hansen J. (G) 8. Jorgensen S. 19. Kahl E. 4. Knudsen M. 14. Molgaard T. 25. Rosler C. 7. Solbakken M. 45. Storch C. 27. Tchamche S. 42. van der Raad M. (G)	72. Anisio 3. Circati A. 22. Duran J. 33. Gabriel Indio 13. Kaminski J. 11. Lukebakio D. 16. Manu Silva 77. Moreira G. 62. Neto J. 20. Rios R. 21. Schjelderup A. 1. Trubin A. (G)
Coaches
Poulsen J.	Silva M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Prestianni G. ⚽, Bah A. (A),
25', Camara M. 🟨,
45', Carstensen R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Serra J. ↓, Tchamche S. ↑,
55', 0 - 2, Rafa Silva ⚽,
60', 1 - 2, Carstensen R. ⚽,
61', 1 - 3, Prestianni G. ⚽, Lenglet C. (A),
62', Arnstad K. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
62', Anderson M. ↓, Jorgensen S. ↑,
65', Sudakov G. ↓, Moreira G. ↑,
65', Rafa Silva ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
69', Callo L. ↓, Rosler C. ↑,
74', Prestianni G. ↓, Lukebakio D. ↑,
74', Pavlidis V. ↓, Duran J. ↑,
83', Links G. ↓, Emmery F. ↑,
84', Lenglet C. ↓, Circati A. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 1-3. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Cepheus Park.

Aarhus is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Benfica is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aarhus may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Benfica is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Aarhus won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Benfica: 7.38%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	2:0	2	3

Last Results with these Odds

Benfica - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 66.47%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AGF Aarhus
Danish Superliga
23.08.26	AGF Aarhus - OB Odense	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
20.08.26	Benfica - AGF Aarhus	3:1 ✺
Danish Superliga
14.08.26	Viborg - AGF Aarhus	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Sabah - AGF Aarhus	4:0 ✺
05.08.26	AGF Aarhus - Sabah	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLW
- SL Benfica
UEFA Europa League
20.08.26	Benfica - AGF Aarhus	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
17.08.26	Casa Pia - Benfica	0:7 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.08.26	Hearts - Benfica	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.08.26	Benfica - Académico de Viseu	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.26	Benfica - Hearts	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
20.08.26	Benfica - AGF Aarhus	3:1

Upcoming Matches