Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 4

Date: 23 May 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 2


	Millonarios		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.3	5.75	Watch
	1.73	3.4	5
	1.7	3.5	5.3
	1.74	3.46	5.44
	1.7	3.3	4.8
	1.72	3.62	4.95	Watch
	1.72	3.35	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.53)	3.42 ↓ (3.9)	5.18 ↓ (5.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millonarios
54.5%

Draw
27.4%

Peñarol de Montevideo
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

23.7%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

23.7%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Millonarios's form might have worsened.

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Millonarios, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Millonarios - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Millonarios will win (votes: 8 - 16.7%). Peñarol will win (votes: 40 - 83.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Peñarol: 72.7% – 93.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Millonarios could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Millonarios is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Millonarios won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
20.05.23	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	2:2 ✺
17.05.23	Millonarios - Deportivo La Equidad	0:0 ✺
13.05.23	Boyacá Chicó - Millonarios	1:1 ✺
10.05.23	Millonarios - Alianza Valledupar	3:1 ✺
07.05.23	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTWW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.05.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1 ✺
08.05.23	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.23	Defensa y Justicia - Peñarol de Montevideo	4:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0 ✺
23.04.23	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
20.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Millonarios	0:2
Club Friendly
04.07.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Millonarios	3:1

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