Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio La Independencia (Tunja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fubo Latino 2


	Boyacá Chicó		Millonarios

	1	X	2
	5	3.5	1.7	Watch
	4.95	3.45	1.72
	5.38	3.5	1.75
	5.09	3.39	1.75	Watch
	4.8	3.3	1.73
	4.88	3.34	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.02 ↑ (4.31)	3.41 ↑ (3.2)	1.74 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boyacá Chicó
18.7%

Draw
27.4%

Millonarios
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

29%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

28.2%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boyacá Chicó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Millonarios has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boyacá Chicó than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Boyacá Chicó - Millonarios Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Millonarios will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Boyacá Chicó (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Boyacá Chicó (votes: 1 - 25%). Millonarios (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Denis D. (G) 29. Ruiz D. 24. Banguero A. 25. Palma J. 28. Diaz J. 5. Arroyo F. 11. Ramirez Raigosa D. A. 8. Salazar S. 3. Quiceno J. 18. Cabrera Y. 9. Molina J. (C)	1. De Amores G. (G) 2. Sarabia C. 22. Valencia S. 17. Arias J. 6. Mosquera S. 14. Silva D. (C) 19. Garcia M. 28. Vega S. 26. Llinas A. 27. Contreras R. 23. Castro L.
Substitutes
6. Aedo A. 17. Caicedo O. 1. Caicedo Vasquez R. A. (G) 14. Campo Chara J. A. 19. Castillo J. 26. Cordoba Y. 22. Diaz Montes J. d. J. 2. Saldana A. 20. Valencia N.	24. Angulo J. 20. Banguero D. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 4. Elizalde E. 35. Mosquera S. 12. Novoa D. (G) 7. Quintero D. 3. Samuel M. 30. Viveros S.
Coaches
Gomez J.	Bustos F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', Banguero A. 🟨,
21', Salazar S. 🟨,
24', Ruiz D. 🟨,
24', Vega S. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Banguero A. ⚽,
34', Molina J. 🟨,
34', Castro L. 🟨,
45+6', 2 - 0, Molina J. ⚽, Cabrera Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', 2 - 1, Llinas A. ⚽, Valencia S. (A),
59', Silva D. 🟨,
59', Silva D. 🟨,
65', Sarabia C. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
65', Garcia M. ↓, Viveros S. ↑,
68', Cabrera Y. ↓, Aedo A. ↑,
69', Valencia S. ↓, Castro Espinosa B. D. ↑,
74', Vega S. ↓, Quintero D. ↑,
81', Arroyo F. ↓, Caicedo O. ↑,
81', Ramirez Raigosa D. A. ↓, Diaz Montes J. d. J. ↑,
90', Banguero A. 🟨,
90+2', Mosquera S. 🟨,
90+4', Molina J. ↓, Saldana A. ↑,
90+4', Diaz J. 🟨,
90+4', Salazar S. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
90+6', Palma J. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boyacá Chicó won 0.

Recent form of Boyacá Chicó has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Millonarios is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Millonarios may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Millonarios is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Boyacá Chicó won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 15:41. (average 0.8:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Boyacá Chicó won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:17. (average 0.7:1.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	19:12	7	22
14	Chico	11	3	3	5	10:18	-8	12

Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.39%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boyacá Chicó
Colombian Primera A
27.02.26	Once Caldas - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Boyacá Chicó - Rionegro Águilas	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Boyacá Chicó - Jaguares de Córdoba	5:0 ✺
07.02.26	Junior Barranquilla - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLWL
- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
09.03.26	Millonarios - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.26	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	1:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
26.02.26	Millonarios - Deportivo Pereira	5:1 ✺
21.02.26	Inter Bogotá - Millonarios	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Millonarios - Llaneros SA	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
12.11.25	Boyacá Chicó - Millonarios	1:2
25.05.25	Millonarios - Boyacá Chicó	4:2
14.11.24	Boyacá Chicó - Millonarios	1:5
28.04.24	Millonarios - Boyacá Chicó	3:0
25.10.23	Millonarios - Boyacá Chicó	1:1
11.06.23	Boyacá Chicó - Millonarios	2:1
27.05.23	Millonarios - Boyacá Chicó	1:0

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