Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Palencia M. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America


	Millonarios		Alianza Valledupar

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.75	7	Watch
	1.55	3.6	5.75
	1.52	3.95	6.8	Watch
	1.57	3.56	6.77	Watch
	1.57	3.5	6
	1.56	3.72	6.6	Watch
	1.52	3.95	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.52)	3.72 ↓ (3.95)	6.53 ↑ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

Watch this match and Colombian Primera A with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: Nuestra Tele

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Current Win Probability

Millonarios
60.5%

Draw
25.2%

Alianza Valledupar
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

23.4%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

23.5%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Millonarios - Alianza Valledupar Predictions

Users Predictions: Millonarios will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Montero A. (G) 34. Navarro S. 26. Llinas A. 17. Arias J. 20. Banguero D. 5. Arevalo Chaparro J. N. 43. Marimon L. 88. Villarreal N. 8. Victoria Palacios D. S. 77. Palacios K. 23. Castro L.	12. Chaverra J. (C) 60. Rosales Y. 6. Figueroa J. 3. Moreno K. 22. Suarez K. 7. Castillo J. 23. Mendoza Benitez D. A. 29. Torres E. 33. Fernandez W. 17. Pardo F. 18. Garcia J.
Substitutes
1. Arboleda I. (G) 7. Charrupi F. 15. Cordoba Mosquera J. E. 6. Mosquera S. 35. Mosquera S. 13. Palacios H. 18. Ruiz D.	11. Aponza Cantonil S. A. 8. Colpa Bolano R. R. 99. Gil M. 21. Manjarres R. 19. Perez L. 15. Vergara C. 1. Wallens J. (G)
Coaches
Gonzalez D.	Bodhert H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Castillo J. 🟥,
20', 1 - 0, Castro L. (Pen),
29', Garcia J. 🟨,
30', Torres E. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
30', Pardo F. ↓, Manjarres R. ↑,
31', Castro L. (Pen),
34', Palacios K. 🟨,
44', Castro L. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Chaverra J. ↓, Wallens J. ↑,
60', Mendoza Benitez D. A. ↓, Colpa Bolano R. R. ↑,
60', Navarro S. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
71', Fernandez W. ↓, Aponza Cantonil S. A. ↑,
76', 2 - 0, Marimon L. ⚽, Villarreal N. (A),
81', Arevalo Chaparro J. N. ↓, Charrupi F. ↑,
81', Palacios K. ↓, Mosquera S. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Millonarios won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Millonarios could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Millonarios is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Millonarios won 11 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 36:19 (average 1.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Millonarios won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 20:6 (average 2.2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
26.03.25	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Millonarios	3:2 ✺
16.03.25	Millonarios - Rionegro Águilas	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Junior Barranquilla - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.25	Once Caldas - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLL
- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Primera A
26.03.25	Alianza Valledupar - Fortaleza CEIF	0:0 ✺
23.03.25	Alianza Valledupar - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	América de Cali - Alianza Valledupar	3:0 ✺
08.03.25	Alianza Valledupar - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Once Caldas - Alianza Valledupar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
28.07.24	Alianza Valledupar - Millonarios	2:1
31.01.24	Millonarios - Alianza Valledupar	1:1
Colombian Copa
05.10.23	Alianza Valledupar - Millonarios	1:2
28.09.23	Millonarios - Alianza Valledupar	2:0
Colombian Primera A
29.07.23	Alianza Valledupar - Millonarios	1:0
10.05.23	Millonarios - Alianza Valledupar	3:1
30.10.22	Alianza Valledupar - Millonarios	2:4

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