Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 43

Date: 18 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)


	Milton Keynes Dons		Charlton Athletic

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.25	3
	2.35	3.2	3
	2.35	3.35	3.05
	2.43	3.32	3.12
	2.38	3.2	3
	2.38	3.28	3.02	Watch
	2.41	3.05	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.64)	3.24 ↑ (3.23)	3.03 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
39.6%

Draw
29.2%

Charlton Athletic
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

28.4%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

28.6%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Charlton Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Charlton Athletic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milton Keynes Dons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Charlton Athletic than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Charlton Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	30%	30%

Milton Keynes Dons - Charlton Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Charlton will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 and 11).

MK Dons has the most likely position - 20 (27.1%), project points - 48, currently - 43, a chance of relegated (21%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Charlton has the most likely position - 10 (31.83%), project points - 62, currently - 55, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 21, importance 31, small match rating 26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches MK Dons won 3.

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 15 head-to-head matches MK Dons won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 19-9.

Including matches at home between the teams MK Dons won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League One
15.04.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Cheltenham Town	2:2 ✺
10.04.23	Derby County - Milton Keynes Dons	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
01.04.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
25.03.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TTTTW
- Charlton Athletic
English League One
15.04.23	Ipswich Town - Charlton Athletic	6:0 ✺
10.04.23	Charlton Athletic - Burton Albion	3:2 ✺
07.04.23	Bristol Rovers - Charlton Athletic	1:0 ✺
01.04.23	Charlton Athletic - Shrewsbury Town	6:0 ✺
25.03.23	Charlton Athletic - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
25.10.22	Charlton Athletic - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2
22.02.22	Charlton Athletic - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2
English EFL Trophy
04.01.22	Charlton Athletic - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
English League One
17.08.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Charlton Athletic	2:1
26.01.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Charlton Athletic	0:1
02.12.20	Charlton Athletic - Milton Keynes Dons	0:1
English League Cup
14.08.18	Milton Keynes Dons - Charlton Athletic	3:0

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