Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 41

Date: 10 April 2023, Monday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)


	Derby County		Milton Keynes Dons

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.75	5.5
	1.62	3.8	5
	1.62	4	5.5
	1.64	4.03	5.61
	1.6	3.75	5.5
	1.6	3.92	5.65	Watch
	1.64	3.85	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.58)	3.87 ↑ (3.82)	5.39 ↓ (5.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
58.1%

Draw
24.4%

Milton Keynes Dons
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

24.4%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

23.3%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	15.4%	15.4%

Derby County - Milton Keynes Dons Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). MK Dons will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 7 and 19).

Derby has the most likely position - 6 (32.88%), project points - 77, currently - 67, not chance of relegated, a chance of prom. playoffs (48%), a small chance of promoted (10%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

MK Dons has the most likely position - 20 (29.96%), project points - 48, currently - 41, a chance of relegated (16%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 23, importance 33, small match rating 28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Derby is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

MK Dons is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
07.04.23	Forest Green Rovers - Derby County	0:2 ✺
01.04.23	Derby County - Ipswich Town	0:2 ✺
25.03.23	Peterborough United - Derby County	2:0 ✺
18.03.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	0:2 ✺
11.03.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLLLW
- Milton Keynes Dons
English League One
07.04.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
01.04.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
25.03.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Accrington Stanley - Milton Keynes Dons	0:1 ✺
11.03.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.11.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Derby County	1:3
English League Championship
13.02.16	Derby County - Milton Keynes Dons	0:1
26.09.15	Milton Keynes Dons - Derby County	1:3

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