Match Info

League Two - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Drysdale D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Milton Keynes Dons		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.3	3.6
	2.05	3.3	3.5
	2.08	3.35	3.45
	2.09	3.35	3.73
	1.35	4.60	8.54	Watch
	2.02	3.46	3.45	Watch
	1.98	3.3	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.83)	3.52 ↓ (3.58)	4.26 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
49.8%

Draw
27.5%

Gillingham
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

26.1%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

25.4%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Gillingham will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 16. Nemane A. 15. Offord L. 21. Ekpiteta M. 22. Mellish J. 18. Collar W. 6. Kelly L. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 11. Mendez-Laing N. 9. Hogan S. 13. Paterson C.	1. Morris G. (G) 2. Hutton R. 5. Smith A. 30. Gale S. 22. Ogie S. 14. McKenzie R. (C) 11. Rowe A. 6. Coleman E. 10. Williams J. 9. Andrews J. 20. Nevitt E.
Substitutes
7. Crowley D. 17. Leko J. 23. Maguire L. 4. Thompson N. 20. Thompson-Sommers K. 34. Tripp C. 27. Trueman C. (G)	15. Akomeah T. 32. Cirino L. 3. Clark M. 27. Khumbeni N. 12. Palmer-Houlden S. 25. Turner J. (G) 19. Vokes S.
Coaches
Warne P.	Ainsworth G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Gale S. (Own goal),
34', Smith A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
57', 2 - 0, Mendez-Laing N. ⚽, Kelly L. (A),
60', Hutton R. 🟨,
63', Andrews J. 🟨,
63', Maguire L. 🟨,
65', Nevitt E. ↓, Palmer-Houlden S. ↑,
65', Andrews J. ↓, Vokes S. ↑,
69', 3 - 0, Paterson C. ⚽, Collar W. (A),
76', 3 - 1, Palmer-Houlden S. ⚽,
76', Ogie S. ↓, Clark M. ↑,
76', Rowe A. ↓, Cirino L. ↑,
83', Kelly L. ↓, Crowley D. ↑,
83', Collar W. ↓, Thompson-Sommers K. ↑,
87', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Leko J. ↑,
87', Maguire L. ↓, Thompson N. ↑,
90+3', Leko J. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 2, Williams J. ⚽, Gale S. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 1.

MK Dons is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gillingham is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

MK Dons is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.5:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.95%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
27.09.25	Shrewsbury Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Accrington Stanley	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
16.09.25	Milton Keynes Dons - West Ham United U21	1:5 ✺
English League Two
13.09.25	Chesterfield - Milton Keynes Dons	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Grimsby Town	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLLTL
- Gillingham FC
English League Two
27.09.25	Gillingham - Harrogate Town	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Newport County - Gillingham	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Gillingham - Notts County	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Bromley - Gillingham	2:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Gillingham - Fulham U21	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
12.04.25	Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
14.12.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham	0:1
27.01.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham	2:1
07.10.23	Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons	2:1
English League One
01.01.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham	0:0
18.09.21	Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons	1:4
02.03.21	Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons	3:2

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