Match Info

FA Cup - 1/128-finals

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)


	Newport County		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.6	1.76
	3.38	2.30	2.90	Watch
	4.28	3.5	1.83	Watch
	3.3	3.4	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↓ (3.94)	3.2 ↓ (3.4)	2.16 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
25.2%

Draw
30.1%

Gillingham
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

27.1%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

22.3%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Newport County - Gillingham Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Wright J. (G) 22. Ogunneye H. 15. Jenkins L. (C) 2. Evans C. 12. Thomas J. 14. Whitmore K. 11. Antwi C. 44. Braybrooke S. 20. Lloyd B. 19. Garner G. 9. Baker-Richardson C.	25. Turner J. (G) 2. Hutton R. 5. Smith A. 30. Gale S. 3. Clark M. 6. Coleman E. 8. Little A. (C) 14. McKenzie R. 23. Dack B. 9. Andrews J. 20. Nevitt E.
Substitutes
27. Alexander-Walker M. 6. Brennan C. 3. Driscoll-Glennon A. 7. Kamwa B. 39. McKenzie M. 25. Odimayo A. 36. Pugh H. 23. Reindorf M. 1. Tzanev N. (G)	15. Akomeah T. 32. Cirino L. 13. Holtam T. (G) 27. Khumbeni N. 12. Palmer-Houlden S. 11. Rowe A. 19. Vokes S. 18. Wyllie M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Nevitt E. ⚽,
25', Gale S. 🟨,
32', 1 - 1, Evans C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Little A. ↓, Khumbeni N. ↑,
57', Andrews J. ↓, Palmer-Houlden S. ↑,
67', Jenkins L. ↓, Odimayo A. ↑,
82', Nevitt E. ↓, Vokes S. ↑,
82', Dack B. ↓, Cirino L. ↑,
89', Ogunneye H. ↓, Brennan C. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
94', Garner G. ↓, Reindorf M. ↑,
97', Cirino L. 🟨,
103', Whitmore K. ↓, Kamwa B. ↑,
104', McKenzie R. ↓, Akomeah T. ↑,
109', 2 - 1, Antwi C. ⚽, Reindorf M. (A),
111', Coleman E. ↓, Rowe A. ↑,
118', 2 - 2, Palmer-Houlden S. ⚽,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Clark M. (Pen),
1, Baker-Richardson C. (Pen),
2, Hutton R. (Pen),
2, Braybrooke S. (Pen),
3, Vokes S. (Pen),
3, Antwi C. (Pen),
4, Khumbeni N. (Pen),
4, Kamwa B. (Pen),
5, Palmer-Houlden S. (Pen),
5, Lloyd B. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newport won 4.

Newport has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gillingham is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Gillingham is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Newport won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:7. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Newport won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Newport County - the odds 3.94 are the expected chance of winning is 23.43%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
25.10.25	Harrogate Town - Newport County	0:3 ✺
18.10.25	Newport County - Cheltenham Town	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Accrington Stanley - Newport County	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Cardiff City - Newport County	0:1 ✺
English League Two
04.10.25	Newport County - Swindon Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.3 WLWWL
- Gillingham FC
English League Two
25.10.25	Gillingham - Salford City	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Grimsby Town - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
11.10.25	Gillingham - Cheltenham Town	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Colchester United - Gillingham	2:1 ✺
English League Two
04.10.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
20.09.25	Newport County - Gillingham	1:3
04.03.25	Newport County - Gillingham	3:1
22.10.24	Gillingham - Newport County	0:2
17.02.24	Newport County - Gillingham	1:0
28.10.23	Gillingham - Newport County	0:2
29.04.23	Gillingham - Newport County	1:2
19.11.22	Newport County - Gillingham	2:0

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