Match Info

I Liqa - Round 9

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday


	Mingachevir		Baku Sporting

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.92	3.35	3.35
	1.71	3.4	4.37
	1.22	6.19	9.15	Watch
	1.78	3.36	4.13
	1.66	3.25	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.87)	3.91 ↑ (3.3)	5.1 ↑ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mingachevir
57.2%

Draw
24.2%

Baku Sporting
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

27.6%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

27.8%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mingachevir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mingachevir's performance.

Baku Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Baku Sporting might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mingachevir than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mingachevir that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baku Sporting than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Baku Sporting could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mingachevir - Baku Sporting Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Muradov K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
75', Jafarli R. 🟥,
78', 1 - 1, Allahverdiyev I. ⚽,
84', 1 - 2, Mammadli K. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 4)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Mingachevir is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mingachevir won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Mingachevir won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mingachevir FK
Azerbaijan First Division
20.11.25	MOIK Baku - Mingachevir	0:3 ✺
05.11.25	Mingachevir - Şəfa	2:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
29.10.25	Gabala - Mingachevir	5:1 ✺
Azerbaijan First Division
23.10.25	Zagatala - Mingachevir	2:3 ✺
16.10.25	Mingachevir - Shimal	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLWW
- Baku Sporting
Azerbaijan First Division
21.11.25	Baku Sporting - Səbail	0:0 ✺
05.11.25	Baku Sporting - Cəbrayıl	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
28.10.25	Göygöl - Baku Sporting	0:2 ✺
Azerbaijan First Division
22.10.25	MOIK Baku - Baku Sporting	0:0 ✺
17.10.25	Baku Sporting - Şəfa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
24.04.25	Mingachevir - Baku Sporting	4:0
20.02.25	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	0:1
08.11.24	Mingachevir - Baku Sporting	1:2

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