Match Info

Copa Venezuela - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental de Maturín (Maturín)


	Monagas		Carabobo

	1	X	2
	2.48	3.15	2.72
	2.41	3.03	2.97	Watch
	2.53	3.16	2.64
	2.5	2.54	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.85)	2.97 ↓ (3)	2.87 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monagas
37%

Draw
30.9%

Carabobo
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

29.9%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

30.1%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monagas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monagas's performance.

Carabobo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carabobo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monagas than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monagas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carabobo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Monagas - Carabobo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Monagas will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Carabobo will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Lima E. (G) 24. Anderson E. 7. Basante F. 4. Fuenmayor A. 41. Gil A. 35. Natera S. 88. Navas E. 34. Perez Piamo Y. J. d. J. 32. Ramirez C. 39. Rodriguez R. 5. Welch J.	22. Bruera L. (G) 4. Aponte L. 6. Bahachille A. 28. Bonilla P. 33. Calabrese S. 35. Diaz F. 16. Lopez F. 11. Lucena A. 15. Mendoza S. 17. Oliveros F. 27. Rodriguez N.
Substitutes
28. Brito E. 18. Caraballo J. 26. Castillo D. 60. Efrain Marquez Cabello L. 27. Farias E. 64. Fayuta M. 29. Henry N. 59. Herrera S. 3. Lujano C. 12. Riveros T. (G) 14. Rivero V. 9. Rodriguez T.	92. Alegria J. 14. Berrios J. 39. Crespo E. 1. Gil D. (G) 2. Guaramato M. 9. Londono F. 32. Neira E. 23. Orozco Y. 13. Pernia M. 18. Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 37. Reina D. 29. Silva P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Diaz F. ↓, Berrios J. ↑,
46', Calabrese S. ↓, Alegria J. ↑,
46', Fuenmayor A. ↓, Rivero V. ↑,
46', Rodriguez R. ↓, Rodriguez T. ↑,
56', Gil A. ↓, Henry N. ↑,
62', Natera S. 🟨,
63', Berrios J. 🟨,
63', 🟨,
65', Natera S. ↓, Caraballo J. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Alegria J. ⚽,
68', Lucena A. ↓, Orozco Y. ↑,
74', Ramirez C. ↓, Farias E. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Caraballo J. ⚽,
84', Bahachille A. ↓, Crespo E. ↑,
84', Lopez F. ↓, Ramos Rodriguez C. I. ↑,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monagas won 1.

Both teams have triumphed in their latest matches.

Monagas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monagas won 4 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:29. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Monagas won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.4:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Monagas - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 31.51%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monagas SC
Venezuelan Primera Division
14.09.25	Monagas - Universidad Central	2:0 ✺
Copa Venezuela
03.09.25	Deportivo Táchira - Monagas	0:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
30.08.25	Monagas - Metropolitanos	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Zamora - Monagas	2:3 ✺
Copa Venezuela
20.08.25	Monagas - Deportivo Táchira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 WWWWW
- Carabobo FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
14.09.25	Carabobo - Caracas	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Rayo Zuliano - Carabobo	0:2 ✺
Copa Venezuela
27.08.25	Carabobo - Portuguesa Acarígua	5:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
23.08.25	Carabobo - Universidad Central	4:1 ✺
Copa Venezuela
19.08.25	Portuguesa Acarígua - Carabobo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
16.08.25	Monagas - Carabobo	2:0
08.03.25	Carabobo - Monagas	1:0
13.11.24	Carabobo - Monagas	1:0
30.10.24	Monagas - Carabobo	1:1
08.08.24	Carabobo - Monagas	0:0
18.02.24	Monagas - Carabobo	0:0
Club Friendly
26.01.24	Carabobo - Monagas	1:1

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