Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - ROUND 11

Date: 4 December 2022, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Moncarapachense		Leiria

	1	X	2
	4.6	3.5	1.62
	5.4	3.65	1.54
	4.8	3.5	1.63
	5.74	3.78	1.64
	4.8	3.2	1.7
	5.2	3.6	1.59	Watch
	4.9	3.6	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.06 ↑ (3.56)	3.55 ↑ (3)	1.62 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moncarapachense
18%

Draw
25.7%

Leiria
56.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

30.4%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.7%

29.3%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moncarapachense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moncarapachense's form might have worsened.

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leiria's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moncarapachense than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moncarapachense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leiria, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

Moncarapachense - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: Leiria will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 10 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group)).

Recent matches Moncarapachense is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Leiria is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Moncarapachense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Leiria is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano Ginásio Clube Moncarapachense
Portuguese Liga 3
26.11.22	Amora - Moncarapachense	6:0 ✺
13.11.22	Moncarapachense - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
06.11.22	Real SC - Moncarapachense	0:1 ✺
29.10.22	Moncarapachense - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
22.10.22	Alverca - Moncarapachense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLWWL
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 3
27.11.22	Leiria - Caldas	2:0 ✺
12.11.22	Fontinhas - Leiria	1:1 ✺
06.11.22	Leiria - Sporting Lisbon B	1:0 ✺
29.10.22	Oliveira Hospital - Leiria	3:4 ✺
23.10.22	Amora - Leiria	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WTWWL

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