Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - ROUND 9

Date: 13 November 2022, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Moncarapachense		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	2.6
	2.4	3	2.8
	2.46	3.05	2.65
	2.59	3.24	2.86
	2.43	3.13	2.72
	2.5	3.1	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (3.46)	3.1 ↑ (3)	2.72 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moncarapachense
37.1%

Draw
29.4%

Belenenses
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

30.5%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

27.9%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moncarapachense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moncarapachense's performance.

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Belenenses might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moncarapachense than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moncarapachense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Belenenses could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Belenenses will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Moncarapachense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Moncarapachense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano Ginásio Clube Moncarapachense
Portuguese Liga 3
06.11.22	Real SC - Moncarapachense	0:1 ✺
29.10.22	Moncarapachense - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
22.10.22	Alverca - Moncarapachense	2:0 ✺
08.10.22	Moncarapachense - Setúbal	1:2 ✺
17.09.22	Moncarapachense - Oliveira Hospital	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWLLL
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
06.11.22	Belenenses - Caldas	1:1 ✺
28.10.22	Fontinhas - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
21.10.22	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Sanjoanense - Belenenses	3:2 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
09.10.22	Leiria - Belenenses	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
29.05.22	Belenenses - Moncarapachense	0:1
24.04.22	Moncarapachense - Belenenses	0:0

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